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ESD Reviews : Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation

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Heinze, Christoph [Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Postboks 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway] Eyring, Veronika [Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany] Friedlingstein, Pierre [College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK] Jones, Colin [National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Leeds, Leeds, UK] Balkanski, Yves [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSaclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France] Fichefet, Thierry [UCL]

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès libre
Publication date 2019
Language Anglais
Journal information "Earth System Dynamics" - Vol. 10, no.3, p. 379-452 (2019)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Copernicus GmbH (Goettingen)
issn 2190-4979
e-issn 2190-4987
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Keywords General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/218728