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A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

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Tran, Annelise [CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier] L'Ambert, Grégory [EID Méditarrané Montpellier] Lacour, Guillaume [UCL] Benoît, Romain [EID Méditarrané Montpellier] Demarchi, Marie [SIRS, Montpellier] Ezanno, Pauline [INRA, UMR, Biologie epidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes]

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès libre
Publication date 2013
Language Anglais
Journal information "International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health" - Vol. 10, no.5, p. 1698-1719 (2013)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Molecular Diversity Preservation International (M D P I) ((Switzerland) Basel)
issn 1660-4601
e-issn 1660-4601
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - SST/ELI/ELIB - Biodiversity
Keywords Aedes albopictus ; arbovirus ; population dynamics ; modelling ; sensitivity analysis ; 3123
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Bibliographic reference Tran, Annelise ; L'Ambert, Grégory ; Lacour, Guillaume ; Benoît, Romain ; Demarchi, Marie ; et. al. A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 10, no.5, p. 1698-1719 (2013)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/128231