Vulnerability assessment of Qatar desalination plants to oil spills

Water scarcity is an issue at least once a year for 70% of the global population. As water scarcity increases, desalination plants are on the rise. Today, desalinated water represents about half of the entire water supply of Qatar. However, the desalination plants and, by extension, Qatar are very sensitive to oil spill pollution. The Arabian Gulf being one of the most oil-polluted environment in the World, Qatar is continuously threatened by oil spills, which could lead to the closure of desalination plants. To efficiently manage its water supply, Qatar needs to monitor its coastal waters in order to detect as early as possible oil spills that could potentially threaten its desalination plants. In this study, we perform a vulnerability assessment of Qatar desalination plants to oil pollution originating from both shipping activities and offshore oil platforms. In order to simulate oil drift dispersal, we used the open-source model OpenOil, which takes into account the different physical processes driving oil dispersal as well as most of the oil weathering processes. To assess the exposure to oil pollution originating from shipping activities, we first identify the oil risk area around a desalination plant and then combine this risk information with the density of ships in the Gulf. In a second step, a connectivity study was performed to highlight which oil fields are the most dangerous for Qatar. Overall, the results show a strong seasonal variability of the oil exposure patterns, which reflects changes in the atmospheric and oceanic in the Gulf. When Shamal winds are blowing in summer and winter, risk is usually located mostly Northwest of Qatar. However, when winds weaken in spring and autumn, the risk area tends to shift East and be more isotropic. It is during summer, that the circulation is the most intense and hence that oil spills could travel the largest distances before reaching a desalination plant. Higher temperatures and more intense wave activity however increase the oil weathering rate and hence reduce the associated risk. Among Qatar’s three main desalination plants, Ras Laffan, located on the northeastern coast of Qatar, is the one most at risk of being impacted by oil spills. Despite the model is not validated by previous oil spill observations, our results could inform Qatar authorities on ways to optimize their oil spill management strategy. This study could also inspire new research about desalination plants vulnerability throughout the Arabian Gulf and promote the development of oil spills forecasting and monitoring capacities in order to reduce the impact of oil pollution on water production.