Learning in elections and voter turnout

Game theoretic models of voter turnout have recently fallen into disrepute because the crucial ingredient of the model, the probability of being pivotal for an individual voter, is infinitesimal in large elections. Moreover such models are plagued by the problem of multiple equilibria. We show that assuming voters to be boundedly rational instead of fully rational helps to ameliorate both these problems. Modelling the dynamics of voter learning in such a context leads to a unique equilibrium with a high probability, which increases with the number of voters. This inables the derivation of testable implications of the theory: increases in costs of voting affect turnout adversely but there may be persistence of turnout levels between elections even though costs and other parameters change. Increase in uncertainty increases turnout while increases in the size of the electorate decrease it, in line with intuitions.