Coupling models to understand the interactions between energy transition and macroeconomic dynamics

The global shift towards carbon-neutral energy systems necessitates in-depth, forward-looking analysis and modelling, motivated by the scale and multifaceted nature of the transformations at hand. This thesis examines the coupling of macroeconomic models and energy system models to generate policy-relevant insights into the dynamics of the energy transition. Such an integrative approach reveals new dynamics and trajectories that would remain hidden if each model were considered in isolation. The simulation results at the world level underline that a global energy transition compatible with the 1.5°C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the energy system's EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation. Potential bottlenecks and supply constraints are a major determinant of the related dynamics. The second part of the thesis focuses on model coupling for modelling the case of the Colombian energy transition. Through this case study, we aim at examining how the macroeconomic dynamics of an emerging, fossil fuel exporting economy can be affected by its domestic energy transition. The simulation results especially highlight the joint dynamics between the energy transition, cross-border financial flows and the national currency exchange rate. Based on this pioneering work, several avenues for future research are put forward, to refine the feedback loops in the coupled model of the economy-finance-energy system.