How Do Disaffected Voters Choose? A Reassessment of the Protest Voting Hypothesis

Camatarri, Stefano [UCL]

Studies exploring the so-called protest voting hypothesis tend to assume that voters’ political discontent and disaffection imply support for ‘protest’ political actors (e.g., anti-establishment, anti-immigrant, populist parties, etc.). Over time, this has led to an increasingly party-centered focus on political actors generally believed to mobilize protest votes. However, this approach risks neglecting alternative scenarios where protest motivations drive support for parties whose protest character is not immediately evident. In light of this, this article performs a comprehensive assessment of how protest considerations affect the structure of electoral reasoning in general, regardless of the type of party voted for. Analyses rely on multi-level regressions using data from the 2019 European Election Voter Study (EES). Results suggest that disaffected people’s electoral preferences tend to be less ideological and less driven by strategic considerations (such as the electoral 'size' of a political party), as per the original protest voting model. Moreover, specific party competition dynamics can increase the prominence of a protest-driven calculus of voting.