Mechanisms driving precipitation changes in North Africa under past, present and future climate

Water scarcity as well as droughts are recurring phenomenons in North Africa and extended dry periods can have a serious impact on economic and social structures as well as the natural environment. Consequently, understanding the mechanisms that underlie precipitation variability in the region is a key driver of sustainable economic growth in activities such as agriculture, manufacturing, energy and transport. Due to the particular position of North Africa in transitional zone between wet European mid-latitude and dry subtropical climate, its precipitation is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. In addition, its climate differs significantly between coastal and inland areas, which makes this region highly vulnerable to climate changes. In this thesis work, analysis are conducted to better understand the causes of droughts and hydroclimate aridification over the past millennium and in the future changes in North Africa region (from Morocco to Tunisia and North of Libya). Our interest is to improve water management by tracking, anticipating and responding to hydroclimate variability and climate change impacts.