User menu

Accès à distance en utilisant le proxy de l'UCL :

https://proxy.bib.ucl.ac.be/proxy-dial

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

  • Open access
  • PDF
  • 854.17 K
  1. Crutzen Paul J., Geology of mankind, 10.1038/415023a
  2. Hawkins Ed, Ortega Pablo, Suckling Emma, Schurer Andrew, Hegerl Gabi, Jones Phil, Joshi Manoj, Osborn Timothy J., Masson-Delmotte Valérie, Mignot Juliette, Thorne Peter, van Oldenborgh Geert Jan, Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period, 10.1175/bams-d-16-0007.1
  3. Ganopolski A., Winkelmann R., Schellnhuber H. J., Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception, 10.1038/nature16494
  4. Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, Rahmstorf Stefan, Winkelmann Ricarda, Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris, 10.1038/nclimate3013
  5. Schellnhuber H. J., ‘Earth system’ analysis and the second Copernican revolution, 10.1038/35011515
  6. IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker TF (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 3–29.
  7. Drijfhout Sybren, Bathiany Sebastian, Beaulieu Claudie, Brovkin Victor, Claussen Martin, Huntingford Chris, Scheffer Marten, Sgubin Giovanni, Swingedouw Didier, Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models, 10.1073/pnas.1511451112
  8. Stocker TF (2013) Technical summary. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker TF (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK).
  9. Lenton T. M., Held H., Kriegler E., Hall J. W., Lucht W., Rahmstorf S., Schellnhuber H. J., Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
  10. Scheffer M (2009) Critical Transitions in Nature and Society (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton).
  11. Raupach M. R., Gloor M., Sarmiento J. L., Canadell J. G., Frölicher T. L., Gasser T., Houghton R. A., Le Quéré C., Trudinger C. M., The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by land and ocean sinks, 10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014
  12. Schaefer Kevin, Lantuit Hugues, Romanovsky Vladimir E, Schuur Edward A G, Witt Ronald, The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate, 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003
  13. Steffen Will, Broadgate Wendy, Deutsch Lisa, Gaffney Owen, Ludwig Cornelia, The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration, 10.1177/2053019614564785
  14. Schneider von Deimling T., Grosse G., Strauss J., Schirrmeister L., Morgenstern A., Schaphoff S., Meinshausen M., Boike J., Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity, 10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015
  15. Koven C. D., Schuur E. A. G., Schädel C., Bohn T. J., Burke E. J., Chen G., Chen X., Ciais P., Grosse G., Harden J. W., Hayes D. J., Hugelius G., Jafarov E. E., Krinner G., Kuhry P., Lawrence D. M., MacDougall A. H., Marchenko S. S., McGuire A. D., Natali S. M., Nicolsky D. J., Olefeldt D., Peng S., Romanovsky V. E., Schaefer K. M., Strauss J., Treat C. C., Turetsky M., A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback, 10.1098/rsta.2014.0423
  16. Chadburn S. E., Burke E. J., Cox P. M., Friedlingstein P., Hugelius G., Westermann S., An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming, 10.1038/nclimate3262
  17. Ciais P (2013) Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker TF (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 465–570.
  18. Segschneider Joachim, Bendtsen Jørgen, Temperature-dependent remineralization in a warming ocean increases surface pCO2through changes in marine ecosystem composition : REMINERALIZATION IN A WARMING OCEAN, 10.1002/2013gb004684
  19. Bendtsen Jørgen, Hilligsøe Karen Marie, Hansen Jørgen L.S., Richardson Katherine, Analysis of remineralisation, lability, temperature sensitivity and structural composition of organic matter from the upper ocean, 10.1016/j.pocean.2014.10.009
  20. Jones Chris, Lowe Jason, Liddicoat Spencer, Betts Richard, Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change, 10.1038/ngeo555
  21. Kurz Werner A., Apps Michael J., A 70-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CARBON FLUXES IN THE CANADIAN FOREST SECTOR, 10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[0526:ayraoc]2.0.co;2
  22. Lewis S. L., Brando P. M., Phillips O. L., van der Heijden G. M. F., Nepstad D., The 2010 Amazon Drought, 10.1126/science.1200807
  23. Herzschuh Ulrike, Birks H. John B., Laepple Thomas, Andreev Andrei, Melles Martin, Brigham-Grette Julie, Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia, 10.1038/ncomms11967
  24. Waters C. N., Zalasiewicz J., Summerhayes C., Barnosky A. D., Poirier C., Ga uszka A., Cearreta A., Edgeworth M., Ellis E. C., Ellis M., Jeandel C., Leinfelder R., McNeill J. R., Richter D. d., Steffen W., Syvitski J., Vidas D., Wagreich M., Williams M., Zhisheng A., Grinevald J., Odada E., Oreskes N., Wolfe A. P., The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene, 10.1126/science.aad2622
  25. Mao Jiafu, Ribes Aurélien, Yan Binyan, Shi Xiaoying, Thornton Peter E., Séférian Roland, Ciais Philippe, Myneni Ranga B., Douville Hervé, Piao Shilong, Zhu Zaichun, Dickinson Robert E., Dai Yongjiu, Ricciuto Daniel M., Jin Mingzhou, Hoffman Forrest M., Wang Bin, Huang Mengtian, Lian Xu, Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface, 10.1038/nclimate3056
  26. Keenan Trevor F, Prentice I. Colin, Canadell Josep G, Williams Christopher A, Wang Han, Raupach Michael, Collatz G. James, Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake, 10.1038/ncomms13428
  27. Hansen James, Sato Makiko, Hearty Paul, Ruedy Reto, Kelley Maxwell, Masson-Delmotte Valerie, Russell Gary, Tselioudis George, Cao Junji, Rignot Eric, Velicogna Isabella, Tormey Blair, Donovan Bailey, Kandiano Evgeniya, von Schuckmann Karina, Kharecha Pushker, Legrande Allegra N., Bauer Michael, Lo Kwok-Wai, Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous, 10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016
  28. Kriegler E., Hall J. W., Held H., Dawson R., Schellnhuber H. J., Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system, 10.1073/pnas.0809117106
  29. Pollard David, DeConto Robert M., Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years, 10.1038/nature07809
  30. Pollard David, DeConto Robert M., Alley Richard B., Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035
  31. DeConto Robert M., Pollard David, Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise, 10.1038/nature17145
  32. Rintoul S. R., Silvano A., Pena-Molino B., van Wijk E., Rosenberg M., Greenbaum J. S., Blankenship D. D., Ocean heat drives rapid basal melt of the Totten Ice Shelf, 10.1126/sciadv.1601610
  33. US Department of Defense (2015) National security implications of climate-related risks and a changing climate. Available at archive.defense.gov/pubs/150724-congressional-report-on-national-implications-of-climate-change.pdf?source=govdelivery. Accessed February 7, 2018.
  34. Malm Andreas, Hornborg Alf, The geology of mankind? A critique of the Anthropocene narrative, 10.1177/2053019613516291
  35. Mengel M., Levermann A., Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica, 10.1038/nclimate2226
  36. Armour Kyle C., Marshall John, Scott Jeffery R., Donohoe Aaron, Newsom Emily R., Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport, 10.1038/ngeo2731
  37. Stocker Thomas F., Johnsen Sigfùs J., A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw : THERMAL BIPOLAR SEESAW, 10.1029/2003pa000920
  38. Rahmstorf Stefan, Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years, 10.1038/nature01090
  39. Hemming Sidney R., Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, 10.1029/2003rg000128
  40. Alvarez-Solas Jorge, Charbit Sylvie, Ritz Catherine, Paillard Didier, Ramstein Gilles, Dumas Christophe, Links between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, 10.1038/ngeo752
  41. Stouffer R. J., Yin J., Gregory J. M., Dixon K. W., Spelman M. J., Hurlin W., Weaver A. J., Eby M., Flato G. M., Hasumi H., Hu A., Jungclaus J. H., Kamenkovich I. V., Levermann A., Montoya M., Murakami S., Nawrath S., Oka A., Peltier W. R., Robitaille D. Y., Sokolov A., Vettoretti G., Weber S. L., Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes, 10.1175/jcli3689.1
  42. Swingedouw Didier, Rodehacke Christian B., Behrens Erik, Menary Matthew, Olsen Steffen M., Gao Yongqi, Mikolajewicz Uwe, Mignot Juliette, Biastoch Arne, Decadal fingerprints of freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble, 10.1007/s00382-012-1479-9
  43. Rockström Johan, Gaffney Owen, Rogelj Joeri, Meinshausen Malte, Nakicenovic Nebojsa, Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, A roadmap for rapid decarbonization, 10.1126/science.aah3443
  44. Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Donges Jonathan F., Donner Reik V., Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries, 10.1073/pnas.1601611113
  45. Donges Jonathan F, Winkelmann Ricarda, Lucht Wolfgang, Cornell Sarah E, Dyke James G, Rockström Johan, Heitzig Jobst, Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, Closing the loop: Reconnecting human dynamics to Earth System science, 10.1177/2053019617725537
  46. McMichael AJ , ed (2003) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses (WHO, Geneva).
  47. Udmale Parmeshwar D., Ichikawa Yutaka, Manandhar Sujata, Ishidaira Hiroshi, Kiem Anthony S., Shaowei Ning, Panda Sudhindra N., How did the 2012 drought affect rural livelihoods in vulnerable areas? Empirical evidence from India, 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.08.002
  48. Maldonado Julie Koppel, Shearer Christine, Bronen Robin, Peterson Kristina, Lazrus Heather, The impact of climate change on tribal communities in the US: displacement, relocation, and human rights, 10.1007/s10584-013-0746-z
  49. Warner Koko, Afifi Tamer, Where the rain falls: Evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity, 10.1080/17565529.2013.835707
  50. Cheung William W. L., Watson Reg, Pauly Daniel, Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch, 10.1038/nature12156
  51. Nakano Katsuyuki, Screening of climatic impacts on a country’s international supply chains: Japan as a case study, 10.1007/s11027-015-9692-6
  52. PAGES (Past Global Changes) Magazine, 24, 1 (2016)
  53. IPCC (2014) Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Field CB (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1–32.
  54. Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Rogelj Joeri, Schaeffer Michiel, Lissner Tabea, Licker Rachel, Fischer Erich M., Knutti Reto, Levermann Anders, Frieler Katja, Hare William, Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal, 10.1038/nclimate3096
  55. Griscom Bronson W., Adams Justin, Ellis Peter W., Houghton Richard A., Lomax Guy, Miteva Daniela A., Schlesinger William H., Shoch David, Siikamäki Juha V., Smith Pete, Woodbury Peter, Zganjar Chris, Blackman Allen, Campari João, Conant Richard T., Delgado Christopher, Elias Patricia, Gopalakrishna Trisha, Hamsik Marisa R., Herrero Mario, Kiesecker Joseph, Landis Emily, Laestadius Lars, Leavitt Sara M., Minnemeyer Susan, Polasky Stephen, Potapov Peter, Putz Francis E., Sanderman Jonathan, Silvius Marcel, Wollenberg Eva, Fargione Joseph, Natural climate solutions, 10.1073/pnas.1710465114
  56. Levin Simon A., Complex adaptive systems: Exploring the known, the unknown and the unknowable, 10.1090/s0273-0979-02-00965-5
  57. Barrett Scott, Lenton Timothy M., Millner Antony, Tavoni Alessandro, Carpenter Stephen, Anderies John M., Chapin F. Stuart, Crépin Anne-Sophie, Daily Gretchen, Ehrlich Paul, Folke Carl, Galaz Victor, Hughes Terry, Kautsky Nils, Lambin Eric F., Naylor Rosamond, Nyborg Karine, Polasky Stephen, Scheffer Marten, Wilen James, Xepapadeas Anastasios, de Zeeuw Aart, Climate engineering reconsidered, 10.1038/nclimate2278
  58. Mathesius Sabine, Hofmann Matthias, Caldeira Ken, Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere, 10.1038/nclimate2729
  59. Geels Frank W., Sovacool Benjamin K., Schwanen Tim, Sorrell Steve, Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization, 10.1126/science.aao3760
  60. O’Brien Karen, Is the 1.5°C target possible? Exploring the three spheres of transformation, 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.010
  61. Young Oran R., Berkhout Frans, Gallopin Gilberto C., Janssen Marco A., Ostrom Elinor, van der Leeuw Sander, The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.004
  62. Adger W Neil, Eakin Hallie, Winkels Alexandra, Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change, 10.1890/070148
  63. UN General Assembly (2015) Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, A/RES/70/1. Available at https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030%20Agenda%20for%20Sustainable%20Development%20web.pdf. Accessed July 18, 2018.
  64. Wals A. E. J., Brody M., Dillon J., Stevenson R. B., Convergence Between Science and Environmental Education, 10.1126/science.1250515
  65. O’Brien Karen, Reams Jonathan, Caspari Anne, Dugmore Andrew, Faghihimani Maryam, Fazey Ioan, Hackmann Heide, Manuel-Navarrete David, Marks John, Miller Riel, Raivio Kari, Romero-Lankao Patricia, Virji Hassan, Vogel Coleen, Winiwarter Verena, You say you want a revolution? Transforming education and capacity building in response to global change, 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.11.011
  66. Chapin F. Stuart, Pickett Steward T. A., Power Mary E., Jackson Robert B., Carter David M., Duke Clifford, Earth stewardship: a strategy for social–ecological transformation to reverse planetary degradation, 10.1007/s13412-011-0010-7
  67. , Interglacials of the last 800,000 years : Interglacials of the Last 800,000 Years, 10.1002/2015rg000482
  68. Folke Carl, Biggs Reinette, Norström Albert V., Reyers Belinda, Rockström Johan, Social-ecological resilience and biosphere-based sustainability science, 10.5751/es-08748-210341
  69. Westley Frances, Olsson Per, Folke Carl, Homer-Dixon Thomas, Vredenburg Harrie, Loorbach Derk, Thompson John, Nilsson Måns, Lambin Eric, Sendzimir Jan, Banerjee Banny, Galaz Victor, van der Leeuw Sander, Tipping Toward Sustainability: Emerging Pathways of Transformation, 10.1007/s13280-011-0186-9
  70. Lutz W., Muttarak R., Striessnig E., Universal education is key to enhanced climate adaptation, 10.1126/science.1257975
  71. Bongaarts John, Development: Slow down population growth, 10.1038/530409a
  72. Defila R Di Giulio A Kaufmann-Hayoz R , eds (2012) The Nature of Sustainable Consumption and How to Achieve It: Results from the Focal Topic “From Knowledge to Action–New Paths Towards Sustainable Consumption” (Oakum, Munich).
  73. Cohen MJ Szejnwald Brown H Vergragt P , eds (2013) Innovations in Sustainable Consumption: New Economics, Socio-Technical Transitions and Social Practices (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK).
  74. Nyborg K., Anderies J. M., Dannenberg A., Lindahl T., Schill C., Schluter M., Adger W. N., Arrow K. J., Barrett S., Carpenter S., Chapin F. S., Crepin A.-S., Daily G., Ehrlich P., Folke C., Jager W., Kautsky N., Levin S. A., Madsen O. J., Polasky S., Scheffer M., Walker B., Weber E. U., Wilen J., Xepapadeas A., de Zeeuw A., Social norms as solutions, 10.1126/science.aaf8317
  75. Biermann F., Abbott K., Andresen S., Backstrand K., Bernstein S., Betsill M. M., Bulkeley H., Cashore B., Clapp J., Folke C., Gupta A., Gupta J., Haas P. M., Jordan A., Kanie N., Kluvankova-Oravska T., Lebel L., Liverman D., Meadowcroft J., Mitchell R. B., Newell P., Oberthur S., Olsson L., Pattberg P., Sanchez-Rodriguez R., Schroeder H., Underdal A., Vieira S. C., Vogel C., Young O. R., Brock A., Zondervan R., Navigating the Anthropocene: Improving Earth System Governance, 10.1126/science.1217255
  76. Galaz Victor, Global Environmental Governance, Technology and Politics, ISBN:9781781955550, 10.4337/9781781955550
  77. Peters D. P. C., Pielke R. A., Bestelmeyer B. T., Allen C. D., Munson-McGee S., Havstad K. M., Cross-scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events, 10.1073/pnas.0403822101
  78. Williams Mark, Zalasiewicz Jan, Haff PK, Schwägerl Christian, Barnosky Anthony D, Ellis Erle C, The Anthropocene biosphere, 10.1177/2053019615591020
  79. Walker B., Barrett S., Polasky S., Galaz V., Folke C., Engstrom G., Ackerman F., Arrow K., Carpenter S., Chopra K., Daily G., Ehrlich P., Hughes T., Kautsky N., Levin S., Maler K.-G., Shogren J., Vincent J., Xepapadeas T., de Zeeuw A., Looming Global-Scale Failures and Missing Institutions, 10.1126/science.1175325
  80. Hansen J., Sato M., Ruedy R., Perception of climate change, 10.1073/pnas.1205276109
  81. Galaz Victor, Tallberg Jonas, Boin Arjen, Ituarte-Lima Claudia, Hey Ellen, Olsson Per, Westley Frances, Global Governance Dimensions of Globally Networked Risks: The State of the Art in Social Science Research : Global Governance Dimensions of Globally Networked Risks, 10.1002/rhc3.12108
  82. , Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core, 10.1038/nature02599
  83. Polasky Stephen, Carpenter Stephen R., Folke Carl, Keeler Bonnie, Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change, 10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007
  84. Capra Fritjof, Luisi Pier Luigi, The Systems View of Life : A Unifying Vision, ISBN:9780511895555, 10.1017/cbo9780511895555
  85. Carpenter Stephen, Arrow Kenneth, Barrett Scott, Biggs Reinette, Brock William, Crépin Anne-Sophie, Engström Gustav, Folke Carl, Hughes Terry, Kautsky Nils, Li Chuan-Zhong, McCarney Geoffrey, Meng Kyle, Mäler Karl-Göran, Polasky Stephen, Scheffer Marten, Shogren Jason, Sterner Thomas, Vincent Jeffrey, Walker Brian, Xepapadeas Anastasios, Zeeuw Aart, General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events, 10.3390/su4123248
  86. Biggs Reinette, Schlüter Maja, Biggs Duan, Bohensky Erin L., BurnSilver Shauna, Cundill Georgina, Dakos Vasilis, Daw Tim M., Evans Louisa S., Kotschy Karen, Leitch Anne M., Meek Chanda, Quinlan Allyson, Raudsepp-Hearne Ciara, Robards Martin D., Schoon Michael L., Schultz Lisen, West Paul C., Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of Ecosystem Services, 10.1146/annurev-environ-051211-123836
  87. Figueres Christiana, Schellnhuber Hans Joachim, Whiteman Gail, Rockström Johan, Hobley Anthony, Rahmstorf Stefan, Three years to safeguard our climate, 10.1038/546593a
  88. McNeill J. R., Engelke Peter, The Great Acceleration : An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945, ISBN:9780674970731, 10.4159/9780674970731
Bibliographic reference Steffen, Will ; Rockström, Johan ; Richardson, Katherine ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Folke, Carl ; et. al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, no.33, p. 8252-8259 (2018)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/204292