The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements

Bréchet, Thierry [UCL] Eyckmans, J. [] Gerard, Fr. [] Marbaix, Philippe [UCL] Tulkens, Henry [UCL] van Ypersele de Strihou, Jean-Pascal [UCL]

The negotiation strategy of the European Union was analysed with respect to the formation of an international climate agreement of the post-2012 area. Game theory was employed to explore the incentives for key players in the climate policy arena to join future climate agreements. A - 20% unilateral commitment strategy by the EU was compared with a multilateral - 30% emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countries. Using a numerical integrated assessment climate-economy simulation model, we fond that leakage, in the sense of strategic policy reactions on emissions, was negligible. The EU strategy to reduce emissions by 30% (compared with 1990 levels) by 2020, if other Annex-B countries follow suit, does not induce the participation of the USA with a comparable reduction commitment. However, we argue that the original EU proposal can be reshaped so as to stabilize a larger and more ambitious climate coalition than the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period.

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Document type	Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Publication date	2010
Language	Anglais
Journal information	"Climate Policy" - Vol. 10, no. 2, p. 148-166 (2010)
Peer reviewed	yes
Publisher	Earthscan Ltd. ((United Kingdom) London)
issn	1469-3062
e-issn	1752-7457
Publication status	Publié
Affiliations	UCL - SSH/LIDAM - Louvain Institute of Data Analysis and Modeling in economics and statistics UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate UCL - ESPO/ESPO - Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication
Keywords	Emissions trading ; Game theory ; Integrated assessment ; International climate policy ; 1443 ; 1443
Links	http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/89960[Handle] https://doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2009.0643[DOI]

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See also
	[boreal:20024]	The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements