Bertrand, C.
Loutre, Marie-France
[UCL]
Crucifix, Michel
[UCL]
Berger, André
[UCL]
Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the last millennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural (i.e, solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhouse gases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered.
Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigated forcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties in historical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particular forcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of the forcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar and volcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable to dive climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late-20th-century temperature warming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows the model to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guess simulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requires however to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation to constrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit the observation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforce the Little Ice age in our simulations.
- Hegerl G. C., Hasselmann K., Cubasch U., Mitchell J. F. B., Roeckner E., Voss R., Waszkewitz J., Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change, 10.1007/s003820050186
- Barnett T. P., Hasselmann K., Chelliah M., Delworth T., Hegerl G., Jones P., Rasmusson E., Roeckner E., Ropelewski C., Santer B., Tett S., Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report, 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2631:daaorc>2.0.co;2
- Tett Simon F. B., Stott Peter A., Allen Myles R., Ingram William J., Mitchell John F. B., 10.1038/21164
- Stott P. A., Climate Dyn., 17, 1 (2001)
- Stott P. A., Tett S. F. B., Jones G. S., Allen M. R., Mitchell J. F. B., Jenkins G. J., External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings, 10.1126/science.290.5499.2133
- Free M., J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19,057 (1999)
- Broecker W. S., PALEOCLIMATE: Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?, 10.1126/science.291.5508.1497
- Jones P. D., Briffa K. R., Barnett T. P., Tett S. F. B., High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures, 10.1191/095968398667194956
- Mann Michael E., Bradley Raymond S., Hughes Malcolm K., 10.1038/33859
- Mann Michael E., Bradley Raymond S., Hughes Malcolm K., Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations, 10.1029/1999gl900070
- Crowley T. J., Ambio, 29, 51 (2000)
- Kirn K.-Y., Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 681 (1994)
- Crowley T. J., Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, 10.1126/science.289.5477.270
- Brovkin Victor, Ganopolski Andrey, Claussen Martin, Kubatzki Claudia, Petoukhov Vladimir, Modelling climate response to historical land cover change. GCTE/LUCC RESEARCH LETTER, 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00169.x
- Bertrand Cédric, van Ypersele Jean-Pascal, 10.1023/a:1005470900774
- M. Crucifix, Ph. Tulkens, and A. Berger, 2001 . Modelling abrupt climatic change during the last glaciation . In. The oceans and rapid climate change: past, present and future, Vol. 126 of AGU Monograph Series, Americain Geophysical Union (in press).
- Sela J., Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 460 (1971)
- Gallee H., J. Geophys. Res., 96, 13,139 (1991)
- Holton J. R., An introduction to dynamic meteorology (1979)
- Saltzman B., Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl., 29, 41 (1980)
- Schmittner A., Clim. Dyn., 16, 63 (2000)
- L. Jaeger, 1976 . Monatskarten des nierderschlags fur die ganze erde. Tech. Rep. 139, Ber. Dtsch. Wetter-dienstes, 38 pp.
- Saltzman B., Tellus A, 28, 323 (1976)
- Some Experiments with a Zonally Averaged Climate Model, 10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<0186:sewaza>2.0.co;2
- Berlyand T. G., Meteorol. Gidrol., 3, 15 (1980)
- Sellers William D., A Quasi-Three-Dimensional Climate Model, 10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<1557:aqtdcm>2.0.co;2
- C. Bertrand, 1998 . Climate simulation at the secular time scale. Ph.D. Thesis , 208 pp. Institut d'Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemai^tre, Universite catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
- Brovkin Victor, Ganopolski Andrei, Svirezhev Yuri, A continuous climate-vegetation classification for use in climate-biosphere studies, 10.1016/s0304-3800(97)00049-5
- Taylor Karl, The Influence of Subsurface Energy Storage on Seasonal Temperature Variations, 10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<1129:tioses>2.0.co;2
- L. D. Harvey, 1986 . A three-level energy balance climate model with topography, explicit radiative transfer, and explicit sea ice and snow mass budgets. Ph.D. thesis , 333 pp. University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont., Canada.
- Bryan K., J. Comp. Phys., 4, 347 (1969)
- A. J. Semter, and D. Reidel, 1986 . Finite-difference formulation of a world ocean model , in Advanced physical oceano-graphic numerical modelling, Dordrecht, 187 -202 .
- Hovine S, Fichefet T, A zonally averaged, three-basin ocean circulation model for climate studies : , 10.1007/s003820050051
- Wright Daniel G., Stocker Thomas F., Sensitivities of a zonally averaged global ocean circulation model, 10.1029/92jc01168
- Goosse H., Tellus A, 53, 94 (2000)
- Campin J.-M., Tellus A, 51, 412 (1999)
- Semtner Albert J., A Model for the Thermodynamic Growth of Sea Ice in Numerical Investigations of Climate, 10.1175/1520-0485(1976)006<0379:amfttg>2.0.co;2
- Harvey L. D. Danny, Development of a Sea Ice Model for Use in Zonally Averaged Energy Balance Climate Models, 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<1221:doasim>2.0.co;2
- Harvey L. D., J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9435 (1992)
- Parkinson C. L., J. Geophys. Res., 84, 311 (1979)
- Lean J., Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1591 (1992)
- Zhang Q., Soon W. H., Baliunas S. L., Lockwood G. W., Skiff B. A., Radick R. R., A method of determining possible brightness variations of the Sun in past centuries from observations of solar-type stars, 10.1086/187377
- Solanki S. K., Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 341 (1998)
- Bard E., Tellus A, 52, 985 (2000)
- Reid George C., 10.1023/a:1005307009726
- Lean J., Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3195 (1995)
- Berger AndréL., Long-Term Variations of Daily Insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes, 10.1175/1520-0469(1978)035<2362:ltvodi>2.0.co;2
- Houghton R. A., Ecological Monographs, 53, 235 (1982)
- Tricot Ch., Climate Dyn., 2, 39 (1987)
- Delobbe L., Atmosfera, 10, 75 (1997)
- Etheridge D. M., Steele L. P., Langenfelds R. L., Francey R. J., Barnola J.-M., Morgan V. I., Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn, 10.1029/95jd03410
- Nakazawa T., Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 943 (1993)
- Houghton J. T., Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment (1990)
- Houghton J. T., Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment (1992)
- Houghton J. T., Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios (1995)
- Houghton J. T., Climate change 1995: the science of climate change (1996)
- Charlson R. J., Tellus A, 43, 152 (1991)
- Charlson R. J., Science, 255, 423 (1992)
- Kiehl J. T., Science, 260, 311 (1993)
- Langner J., J. Atmos. Chem., 13, 225 (1991)
- G. Orn, U. Hansson, and H. Rodhe, 1996 . Historical worldwide emissions of anthropogenic sulfur. 1860-1985. Report CM-91, ISSN 0280-445X. Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University. International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm, Sweden, 20 pp.
- Bertrand C., Beitr. Phys. Atmosph., 70, 233 (1997)
- Twomey S., Pollution and the planetary albedo, 10.1016/0004-6981(74)90004-3
- Lacis A., Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607 (1992)
- Robock Alan, Mao Jianping, The Volcanic Signal in Surface Temperature Observations, 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1086:tvsist>2.0.co;2
- Mitchell J. F. B., Johns T. C., On Modification of Global Warming by Sulfate Aerosols, 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0245:omogwb>2.0.co;2
- Briffa Keith R, Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees, 10.1016/s0277-3791(99)00056-6
- Jones P. D., Raper S. C. B., Wigley T. M. L., Southern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Variations: 1851–1984, 10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<1213:shsatv>2.0.co;2
- Jones P. D., Climate Monitor, 17, 80 (1988)
- Thomson D. J., IEEE Proc., 70, 1055 (1982)
- Thomson D. J., Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 332, 539 (1990)
- Zielinski G. A., J. Geophys. Res., 100, 20,937 (1995)
- Tegen I., J. Geophys. Res., 100, 18,707 (1995)
- Penner J. E., Science, 256, 1432 (1992)
- Penner J. E., Charlson R. J., Schwartz S. E., Hales J. M., Laulainen N. S., Travis L., Leifer R., Novakov T., Ogren J., Radke L. F., Quantifying and Minimizing Uncertainty of Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols, 10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<0375:qamuoc>2.0.co;2
- Stouffer R. J., Nature, 367, 634 (1994)
- Bard Edouard, Raisbeck Grant M., Yiou Françoise, Jouzel Jean, Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between 14C and 10Be records, 10.1016/s0012-821x(97)00082-4
- Bertrand C., van Ypersele J.-P., Berger A., Volcanic and solar impacts on climate since 1700, 10.1007/s003820050287
- Crowley Thomas J., Kim Kwang-Yul, Modeling the temperature response to forced climate change over the last six centuries, 10.1029/1999gl900347
- Cubasch U., Voss R., Hegerl G. C., Waszkewitz J., Crowley T. J., Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, 10.1007/s003820050196
- B. Franklin, 1784 . Meteorological imaginations and conjectures, Paper read 22 December 1784 to Literary and Philosphical Society of Manchester, reprinted by Sigurdsson (1982).
- Gallée H., Van Yperselb J. P., Fichefet T., Marsiat I., Tricot C., Berger A., Simulation of the last glacial cycle by a coupled, sectorially averaged climate-ice sheet model: 2. Response to insolation and CO2variations, 10.1029/92jd01256
- Gregory J. M., Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1943 (1997)
- Hammer C. U., Nature, 288, 230 (1980)
- Hansen J. E., Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 338, 575 (1980)
- Hansen J. E., Science, 199, 1065 (1978)
- Harshvardhan, J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1274 (1979)
- Hegerl Gabriele C., von Storch Hans, Hasselmann Klaus, Santer Benjamin D., Cubasch Ulrich, Jones Philip D., Detecting Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change with an Optimal Fingerprint Method, 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:dggicc>2.0.co;2
- Jones P. D., New M., Parker D. E., Martin S., Rigor I. G., Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years, 10.1029/1999rg900002
- D. Lal, and B. Peters, 1967 . Cosmic ray produced radioactivity on the Earth . In. Handbuch der Physik, XLVI/2, Springer, Berlin, 551 -612 .
- Lamb H. H., Trans. Roy. Soc. London A, 226, 425 (1970)
- Langway C. C., J. Geophys. Res., 100, 16,241 (1995)
- Parker D. E., Clim. Change, 31, 559 (1995)
- Pollack J. B., J. Geophys. Res., 81, 1071 (1976)
- Pollack J. B., Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 26 (1981)
- Sato M., J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22,987 (1993)
- Sigurdsson Haraldur, Volcanic pollution and climate: The 1783 Laki eruption, 10.1029/eo063i032p00601
Bibliographic reference |
Bertrand, C. ; Loutre, Marie-France ; Crucifix, Michel ; Berger, André. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study. In: Tellus. Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 54, no. 3, p. 221-244 (2002) |
Permanent URL |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41939 |