The influence of ocean convection patterns on high-latitude climate projections

Schaeffer, M Selten, FM Opsteegh, JD Goosse, Hugues [UCL]

The mean state and variability of deep convection in the ocean influence the North Atlantic climate. Using an ensemble experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, it is shown that cooling and subdued warming areas can occur over the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent landmasses under global warming. Different "present-day" convection patterns in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Sea result in different future surface-air temperature changes. At higher latitudes, the more effective positive sea ice feedback increases the likelihood of changes in convection causing a regional cooling that is larger than the warming brought about by the enhanced greenhouse effect. The modeled freshening of deep ocean layers in the North Atlantic in a time period preceding a reorganization of GIN Sea convection is consistent with recent observations. Low-frequency internal variability in the ocean model has relatively little impact on the response patterns.