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A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK

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Holman, IP Nicholls, RJ Berry, PM Harrison, PA Audsley, E. Rounsevell, MDA

The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA's will increasingly provide such output.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès restreint
Publication date 2005
Language Anglais
Journal information "Climatic Change : an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change" - Vol. 71, no. 1, p. 43-73 (2005)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Springer (Dordrecht)
issn 0165-0009
e-issn 1573-1480
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL
Links
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Bibliographic reference Holman, IP ; Nicholls, RJ ; Berry, PM ; Harrison, PA ; Audsley, E. ; et. al. A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. In: Climatic Change : an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, Vol. 71, no. 1, p. 43-73 (2005)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/39697