Robust specification of the roughness penalty prior distribution in spatially adaptive Bayesian P-splines models

The potential important role of the prior distribution of the roughness penalty parameter in the resulting smoothness of Bayesian P-splines models is considered. The recommended specification for that distribution yields models that can lack flexibility in specific circumstances. In such instances, these are shown to correspond to a frequentist P-splines model with a predefined and severe roughness penalty parameter, an obviously undesirable feature. It is shown that the specification of a hyperprior distribution for one parameter of that prior distribution provides the desired flexibility. Alternatively, a mixture prior can also be used. An extension of these two models by enabling adaptive penalties is provided. The posterior of all the proposed models can be quickly explored using the convenient Gibbs sampler. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.