Roles of different climatic factors on human population change in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Yu, Yanyan He, Feng Vavrus, Stephen Johnson, Amber Wu, Haibin Zhang, Wenchao Yin, Qiuzhen [UCL] Ge, Junyi Deng, Chenglong Petraglia, Michael Guo, Zhengtang et al.[show all]

Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23-19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ~9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Alternate regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - have broader implications on climate-human population interactions, including a better understanding human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.