Trustworthiness, Stability and Productivity of Minority Governments in Australia

Brenton, Scott [UCL] Pickering, Heath

In this study, we question commonly held negative perceptions of minority governments and determine whether they can be trusted to deliver on the promises contained in governance agreements, whether they are stable in being able to govern over full terms of parliament, and whether they are productive in being able to successfully pass legislation. We examine eight minority government agreements and the following eight majority government opening parliamentary agendas in Australian national and state governments from 1989 to 2018 and compare their performance using legislative data. The main differences are not how long they last or how much legislation they pass, but rather that majority governments generally make more commitments, particularly more policy-focused commitments. They are also more successful in fulfilling their promises, albeit not completely. We theorise that major parties faced with having to form a minority government agreement will overpromise in order to secure power but can underdeliver due to the risks for minor parties and independents in forcing elections over breaches.