A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0

Van Breedam, Jonas Huybrechts, Philippe Crucifix, Michel [UCL]

On multi-million-year timescales, fully coupled ice sheet–climate simulations are hampered by computational limitations, even at coarser resolutions and when using asynchronous coupling schemes. In this study, a novel coupling method CLISEMv1.0 (CLimate–Ice Sheet EMulator version 1.0) is presented, where a Gaussian process emulator is applied to the climate model HadSM3 and coupled to the ice sheet model AISMPALEO. The temperature and precipitation fields from HadSM3 are emulated to feed the mass balance model in AISMPALEO. The sensitivity of the evolution of the ice sheet over time is tested with respect to the number of predefined ice sheet geometries that the emulator is calibrated on. Additionally, the model performance is evaluated in terms of the formulation of the ice sheet parameter (being ice sheet volume, ice sheet area or both) and the coupling time. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the uncertainty introduced by the emulator. In addition, different lapse rate adjustments are used between the relatively coarse climate model and the much finer ice sheet model topography. It is shown that the ice sheet evolution over a million-year timescale is strongly sensitive to the definition of the ice sheet parameter and to the number of predefined ice sheet geometries. With the new coupling procedure, we provide a computationally efficient framework for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale that allows for a large number of sensitivity tests.