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A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

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Pircalabelu, Eugen [UCL]

We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modeling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modeling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number.

Document type Document de travail (Working Paper)
Access type Accès libre
Publication date 2021
Language Anglais
Number of pages 12 pages
Collection LIDAM Discussion Paper ISBA - 2021/30
Affiliation UCL - SSH/LIDAM/ISBA - Institut de Statistique, Biostatistique et Sciences Actuarielles
Keywords reproduction number ; time dependency ; spline modeling ; COVID-19
Links
Bibliographic reference Pircalabelu, Eugen. A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks. LIDAM Discussion Paper ISBA ; 2021/30 (2021) 12 pages
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/244926