Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

Hunke, Elizabeth [MS-B216, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA] Allard, Richard [U.S. Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center, Stennis, MS, USA] Blain, Philippe [Centre de prévision météorologique et environnementale du Canada, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada] Blockley, Ed [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK] Feltham, Daniel [CPOM, University of Reading, Reading, UK] Fichefet, Thierry [UCL] Garric, Gilles [Mercator Ocean International, Ramonville Saint Agne, France] Grumbine, Robert [National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD, USA] Lemieux, Jean-François [Centre de prévision météorologique et environnementale du Canada, Environnement et Changement Climatique Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada] Rasmussen, Till [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark] Ribergaard, Mads [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark] Roberts, Andrew [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK] Schweiger, Axel [Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA] Tietsche, Steffen [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK] Tremblay, Bruno [McGill University, Montréal, Canada] Vancoppenolle, Martin [Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France] Zhang, Jinlun [Polar Science Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA] et al.[show all]

In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.