Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index

Daskovska, Oleksandra [UCL] Simar, Léopold [UCL] Van Bellegem, Sébastien [UCL]

The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this approach hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to an approach based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques de- scribed above by forecasting the productivityt index of 17 OCDE countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.