Le pic pétrolier : un regard d'économiste

This paper addresses the issue of the peaking of conventional oil production at the world level from an economist’s standpoint. It presents basic stylized facts from the recent history of oil markets, showing how the energy context has evolved over the past thirty years. The issue of the possible peaking of world oil production is then presented and discussed in light of standard economic theory. We show that some of the basic tenets of the oil peak thesis should be considered with due caution. Finally, we present a numerical analysis of the possible economic effects of a permanent and sharp increase of the world price of oil. It suggests that our economies could be much less vulnerable to future oil price shocks than is often assumed.