Essays on unemployment, occupations and demographics

This thesis contributes to the analysis of labor markets in two different ways. Firstly, by studying workers flows by occupation and their impact on fluctuations in occupation-specific and aggregate labor market stocks. Secondly, by exploring the interaction between demographic factors and labor market outcomes in developing countries. The first three chapters are devoted to the study of worker flows and stocks fluctuations. I use Current Population Survey (CPS) data over the 1976-2010 period and the occupational classification of Autor and Dorn (2013) to rank occupations between high, middle and low skill. In Chapter 1, I build the dataset and adjust series for various problems affecting the CPS over this period. Chapter 2 proposes an analysis of occupation-specific worker flows and their effects on short-term fluctuations of labor market stocks. I find that the variance in the high skill unemployment rate is mostly explained by inflows to unemployment (the ins) while outflows (the outs) account for most of the variance in the low skill unemployment rate. Inflows and outflows related to middle and low skill unemployment explain four fifth of the variance in aggregate unemployment. The analysis of labor force fluctuations reveals that flows into the labor force explain two-third of its variance. The results also highlight the fluctuations in the unemployment rate as one of the main drivers of labor force fluctuations. Chapter 3 focuses on medium/long term fluctuations of labor market stocks in the context of Job Polarization. I provide a flow analysis of the decrease in middle skill employment, Jobless recoveries, and the long-term trend in labor force participation. Between 1980 and 2000, employment-to-employment flows are particularly important to understand the decrease in middle skill employment while after 2000, it is flows from unemployment to employment and flows between employment and inactivity. Jobless recoveries can be traced to a negative contribution of unemployment to employment flows in the aftermath of recessions after 1990. Unemployment to employment of all three groups occupations contribute negatively. For labor force participation, I find that flows between middle skill employment and inactivity (partly) explain the drop in participation after 2000. The key role played by the unemployment rate implies that labor force participation is also affected by Jobless recoveries. Chapter 4 explores the interaction between the demographic boom of the early 2000s in Egypt, and the rise in informal work. Through a multi-sectoral model with overlapping generations, three main mechanisms of the demographic boom on informality can be identified. Some solutions to alleviate the effects of the demographic boom are then studied.