Is the concept of ‘tipping point’ helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures?

Crucifix, Michel [UCL] Annan, James

The concept and terminology of tipping points has been widely used to invoke the danger of passing thresholds of irreversible and/or abrupt change in the near immediate future. But how helpful is this metaphor for climate science and for climate change com- munication? Michel Crucifix argues that the tipping point concept may have some limi- tations as a description of the mathematical behaviour of Earth system models trying to simulate the world’s climate. But its use can alert decision-makers to the possibility of some rapid and/or serious changes in the climate system which need attention as part of responsible and accountable policymaking. In contrast, James Annan argues that the concept risks exaggerating the immediacy and severity of climate change and offers a false prospectus of there being a ‘cliff edge’ within the climate system. Climate change is primarily a problem of incremental cumulative harm and the concept of tipping point offers a false emphasis on immediacy and abruptness and harms the public understanding of climate science.