Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene

Routson, Cody C. [School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA] McKay, Nicholas P. [School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA] Kaufman, Darrell S. [School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA] Erb, Michael P. [School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA] Goosse, Hugues [UCL] Shuman, Bryan N. [Center for Quaternary Studies, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA] Rodysill, Jessica R. [Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, USA] Ault, Toby [Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA] et al.[show all]

The latitudinal temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles influences atmospheric stability, the strength of the jet stream and extratropical cyclones1–3. Recent global warming is weakening the annual surface gradient in the Northern Hemisphere by preferentially warming the high latitudes4; however, the implications of these changes for mid-latitude climate remain uncertain5,6. Here we show that a weaker latitudinal temperature gradient—that is, warming of the Arctic with respect to the Equator—during the early to middle part of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in mid-latitude net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, at 30° N to 50° N). We quantify the evolution of the gradient and of mid-latitude moisture both in a new compilation of Holocene palaeoclimate records spanning from 10° S to 90° N and in an ensemble of mid-Holocene climate model simulations. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that a weaker temperature gradient led to weaker mid-latitude westerly flow, weaker cyclones and decreased net terrestrial mid-latitude precipitation. Currently, the northern high latitudes are warming at rates nearly double the global average4, decreasing the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient to values comparable with those in the early to middle Holocene. If the patterns observed during the Holocene hold for current anthropogenically forced warming, the weaker latitudinal temperature gradient will lead to considerable reductions in mid-latitude water resources.