User menu

Accès à distance ? S'identifier sur le proxy UCLouvain | Saint-Louis

On the timescales and length scales of the Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies: a study based on 14 reanalyses

  • Open access
  • PDF
  • 5.91 M
  1. Anisimov, O. A., Vaughan, D. G., Callaghan, T. V., Furgal, C., Marchant, H., Prowse, T. D., Vilhjálmsson, H., and Walsh, J. E.: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007. a
  2. Balmaseda M.A., Hernandez F., Storto A., Palmer M.D., Alves O., Shi L., Smith G.C., Toyoda T., Valdivieso M., Barnier B., Behringer D., Boyer T., Chang Y-S., Chepurin G.A., Ferry N., Forget G., Fujii Y., Good S., Guinehut S., Haines K., Ishikawa Y., Keeley S., Köhl A., Lee T., Martin M.J., Masina S., Masuda S., Meyssignac B., Mogensen K., Parent L., Peterson K.A., Tang Y.M., Yin Y., Vernieres G., Wang X., Waters J., Wedd R., Wang O., Xue Y., Chevallier M., Lemieux J-F., Dupont F., Kuragano T., Kamachi M., Awaji T., Caltabiano A., Wilmer-Becker K., Gaillard F., The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), 10.1080/1755876x.2015.1022329
  3. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Edward, Bitz Cecilia M., Characteristics of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Variability in GCMs, 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00345.1
  4. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Edward, Armour Kyle C., Bitz Cecilia M., DeWeaver Eric, Persistence and Inherent Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a GCM Ensemble and Observations, 10.1175/2010jcli3775.1
  5. Blockley E. W., Martin M. J., McLaren A. J., Ryan A. G., Waters J., Lea D. J., Mirouze I., Peterson K. A., Sellar A., Storkey D., Recent development of the Met Office operational ocean forecasting system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecasts, 10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014
  6. BUDYKO M. I., The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth, 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x
  7. Chang You-Soon, Zhang Shaoqing, Rosati Anthony, Delworth Thomas L., Stern William F., An assessment of oceanic variability for 1960–2010 from the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation, 10.1007/s00382-012-1412-2
  8. Chevallier Matthieu, Salas-Mélia David, The Role of Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in the Arctic Sea Ice Potential Predictability: A Diagnostic Approach with a Coupled GCM, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00209.1
  9. Chevallier Matthieu, Smith Gregory C., Dupont Frédéric, Lemieux Jean-François, Forget Gael, Fujii Yosuke, Hernandez Fabrice, Msadek Rym, Peterson K. Andrew, Storto Andrea, Toyoda Takahiro, Valdivieso Maria, Vernieres Guillaume, Zuo Hao, Balmaseda Magdalena, Chang You-Soon, Ferry Nicolas, Garric Gilles, Haines Keith, Keeley Sarah, Kovach Robin M., Kuragano Tsurane, Masina Simona, Tang Yongming, Tsujino Hiroyuki, Wang Xiaochun, Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project, 10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y
  10. Danabasoglu Gokhan, Yeager Steve G., Bailey David, Behrens Erik, Bentsen Mats, Bi Daohua, Biastoch Arne, Böning Claus, Bozec Alexandra, Canuto Vittorio M., Cassou Christophe, Chassignet Eric, Coward Andrew C., Danilov Sergey, Diansky Nikolay, Drange Helge, Farneti Riccardo, Fernandez Elodie, Fogli Pier Giuseppe, Forget Gael, Fujii Yosuke, Griffies Stephen M., Gusev Anatoly, Heimbach Patrick, Howard Armando, Jung Thomas, Kelley Maxwell, Large William G., Leboissetier Anthony, Lu Jianhua, Madec Gurvan, Marsland Simon J., Masina Simona, Navarra Antonio, George Nurser A.J., Pirani Anna, y Mélia David Salas, Samuels Bonita L., Scheinert Markus, Sidorenko Dmitry, Treguier Anne-Marie, Tsujino Hiroyuki, Uotila Petteri, Valcke Sophie, Voldoire Aurore, Wang Qiang, North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean states, 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.10.005
  11. Day J. J., Tietsche S., Hawkins E., Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence, 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00614.1
  12. Drange, H. and Simonsen, K.: Formulation of air-sea fluxes in the ESOP2 version of MICOM, Technical Report No. 125, Tech. rep., Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, 1996.
  13. Drijfhout Sybren, Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance, 10.1038/srep14877
  14. Drucker Robert, Observations of ice thickness and frazil ice in the St. Lawrence Island polynya from satellite imagery, upward looking sonar, and salinity/temperature moorings, 10.1029/2001jc001213
  15. Ferry, N., Parent, L., Garric, G., Barnier, B., and Jourdain, N. C.: Mercator global Eddy permitting ocean reanalysis GLORYS1V1: description and results, Mercator-Ocean Q. Newslett., 36, 15–27, 2010. a
  16. Forget G., Campin J.-M., Heimbach P., Hill C. N., Ponte R. M., Wunsch C., ECCO version 4: an integrated framework for non-linear inverse modeling and global ocean state estimation, 10.5194/gmd-8-3071-2015
  17. Gerdes Rüdiger, Köberle Cornelia, Comparison of Arctic sea ice thickness variability in IPCC Climate of the 20th Century experiments and in ocean–sea ice hindcasts, 10.1029/2006jc003616
  18. Gleick Peter H., The implications of global climatic changes for international security, 10.1007/bf00138857
  19. Guemas Virginie, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Edward, Chevallier Matthieu, Day Jonathan J., Déqué Michel, Doblas-Reyes Francisco J., Fučkar Neven S., Germe Agathe, Hawkins Ed, Keeley Sarah, Koenigk Torben, Salas y Mélia David, Tietsche Steffen, A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales : Arctic Sea-Ice Predictability and Prediction, 10.1002/qj.2401
  20. Handorf, U.: Tourism booms as the Arctic melts. A critical approach of polar tourism, GRIN Verlag, Munich, 2011. a
  21. Hansen James, Sato Makiko, Hearty Paul, Ruedy Reto, Kelley Maxwell, Masson-Delmotte Valerie, Russell Gary, Tselioudis George, Cao Junji, Rignot Eric, Velicogna Isabella, Tormey Blair, Donovan Bailey, Kandiano Evgeniya, von Schuckmann Karina, Kharecha Pushker, Legrande Allegra N., Bauer Michael, Lo Kwok-Wai, Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous, 10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016
  22. Harms Sabine, Fahrbach Eberhard, Strass Volker H., Sea ice transports in the Weddell Sea, 10.1029/1999jc000027
  23. Hibler, W. D.: A dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 9, 815–846,<0815:ADTSIM>2.0.CO;2, 1979. a
  24. Holland M. M., Bitz C. M., Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models, 10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6
  25. Holland Marika M., Bailey David A., Vavrus Steve, Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3, 10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4
  26. Hunke, E. C. and Dukowicz, J. K.: An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849–1867,<1849:AEVPMF>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
  27. Jung Thomas, Gordon Neil D., Bauer Peter, Bromwich David H., Chevallier Matthieu, Day Jonathan J., Dawson Jackie, Doblas-Reyes Francisco, Fairall Christopher, Goessling Helge F., Holland Marika, Inoue Jun, Iversen Trond, Klebe Stefanie, Lemke Peter, Losch Martin, Makshtas Alexander, Mills Brian, Nurmi Pertti, Perovich Donald, Reid Philip, Renfrew Ian A., Smith Gregory, Svensson Gunilla, Tolstykh Mikhail, Yang Qinghua, Advancing Polar Prediction Capabilities on Daily to Seasonal Time Scales, 10.1175/bams-d-14-00246.1
  28. Köhl Armin, Evaluation of the GECCO2 ocean synthesis: transports of volume, heat and freshwater in the Atlantic : Evaluation of the GECCO2 Ocean Synthesis, 10.1002/qj.2347
  29. Krishfield R. A., Proshutinsky A., Tateyama K., Williams W. J., Carmack E. C., McLaughlin F. A., Timmermans M.-L., Deterioration of perennial sea ice in the Beaufort Gyre from 2003 to 2012 and its impact on the oceanic freshwater cycle : SEA ICE IN THE BG FROM 2003 TO 2012, 10.1002/2013jc008999
  30. Krupnik, I. and Jolly, D.: Earth is Faster Now: Indigenous Observations of Arctic Environmental Change, Arctic Research Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, Alaska, 2002. a
  31. Kurtz N. T., Farrell S. L., Studinger M., Galin N., Harbeck J. P., Lindsay R., Onana V. D., Panzer B., Sonntag J. G., Sea ice thickness, freeboard, and snow depth products from Operation IceBridge airborne data, 10.5194/tc-7-1035-2013
  32. Lindsay R., Schweiger A., Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations, 10.5194/tc-9-269-2015
  33. Lindsay Ron, New Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record, 10.1029/2010eo440001
  34. Lindsay R. W., Zhang J., Arctic Ocean Ice Thickness: Modes of Variability and the Best Locations from Which to Monitor Them*, 10.1175/jpo2861.1
  35. Lindsay, R. W., Zhang, J., Schweiger, A. J., and Steele, M. A.: Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02023,, 2008. a
  36. Lindstad Haakon, Bright Ryan M., Strømman Anders H., Economic savings linked to future Arctic shipping trade are at odds with climate change mitigation, 10.1016/j.tranpol.2015.09.002
  37. Manabe Syukuro, Stouffer Ronald J., Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2concentration in the atmosphere, 10.1029/jc085ic10p05529
  38. Manabe Syukuro, Stouffer Ronald J., Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2concentration in the atmosphere, 10.1029/jc085ic10p05529
  39. Massonnet François, Vancoppenolle Martin, Goosse Hugues, Docquier David, Fichefet Thierry, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Edward, Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes, 10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z
  40. Maykut Gary A., Large-scale heat exchange and ice production in the central Arctic, 10.1029/jc087ic10p07971
  41. Megann A., Storkey D., Aksenov Y., Alderson S., Calvert D., Graham T., Hyder P., Siddorn J., Sinha B., GO5.0: the joint NERC–Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications, 10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014
  42. Mellor, G. L. and Kantha, L.: An ice-ocean coupled model, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 10937–10954, 1989.
  43. Nelson F. E., Anisimov O. A., Shiklomanov N. I., 10.1023/a:1015612918401
  44. Nuttall, M., Berkes, F., Forbes, B., Kofinas, G., Vlassova, T., and Wenzel, G.: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2005. a
  45. Pettipas, R., Hamilton, J., and Prinsenberg, S.: Moored current meter and CTD observations from Barrow Strait, 2003–2004, Can. Data Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci., 173, 134 pp., 2008. a
  46. Prinsenberg, S. and Pettipas, R.: Ice and ocean mooring data statistics from Barrow Strait, the central section of the NW Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Int. J. Offshore Polar, 18, 277–281, 2008. a
  47. Prinsenberg, S., Hamilton, J., Peterson, I., and Pettipas, R.: Influence of climate change on the changing Arctic and Sub-Arctic conditions, edited by: Nihoul, J. and Kostianoy, A., Springer, Dordrecht, 2009. a
  48. Ricker R., Hendricks S., Helm V., Skourup H., Davidson M., Sensitivity of CryoSat-2 Arctic sea-ice freeboard and thickness on radar-waveform interpretation, 10.5194/tc-8-1607-2014
  49. Rienecker Michele M., Suarez Max J., Gelaro Ronald, Todling Ricardo, Bacmeister Julio, Liu Emily, Bosilovich Michael G., Schubert Siegfried D., Takacs Lawrence, Kim Gi-Kong, Bloom Stephen, Chen Junye, Collins Douglas, Conaty Austin, da Silva Arlindo, Gu Wei, Joiner Joanna, Koster Randal D., Lucchesi Robert, Molod Andrea, Owens Tommy, Pawson Steven, Pegion Philip, Redder Christopher R., Reichle Rolf, Robertson Franklin R., Ruddick Albert G., Sienkiewicz Meta, Woollen Jack, MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00015.1
  50. Rothrock D. A., The energetics of the plastic deformation of pack ice by ridging, 10.1029/jc080i033p04514
  51. Rothrock, D. A. and Wensnahan, M.: Global atmospheric forcing data for Arctic ice-ocean modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C04S14,, 2007a. a
  52. Rothrock D. A., Wensnahan Mark, The Accuracy of Sea Ice Drafts Measured from U.S. Navy Submarines, 10.1175/jtech2097.1
  53. Sakov P., Counillon F., Bertino L., Lisæter K. A., Oke P. R., Korablev A., TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic, 10.5194/os-8-633-2012
  54. Serreze M. C., Barrett A. P., Stroeve J. C., Kindig D. N., Holland M. M., The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification, 10.5194/tc-3-11-2009
  55. Sévellec Florian, Fedorov Alexey V., Liu Wei, Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, 10.1038/nclimate3353
  56. Schweiger, A. J.: Unified Sea Ice Thickness Climate Data Record, available at: (last access: 13 Februiary 2019), 2017.
  57. Storto Andrea, Masina Simona, Dobricic Srdjan, Estimation and Impact of Nonuniform Horizontal Correlation Length Scales for Global Ocean Physical Analyses, 10.1175/jtech-d-14-00042.1
  58. Stroeve Julienne, Hamilton Lawrence C., Bitz Cecilia M., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth Edward, Predicting September sea ice: Ensemble skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2013 : Stroeve et al.: Predicting September sea ice, 10.1002/2014gl059388
  59. Tandon Neil F., Kushner Paul J., Docquier David, Wettstein Justin J., Li Camille, Reassessing Sea Ice Drift and Its Relationship to Long-Term Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Coupled Climate Models, 10.1029/2017jc013697
  60. Tietsche Steffen, Balmaseda Magdalena A., Zuo Hao, Mogensen Kristian, Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5, 10.1007/s00382-015-2673-3
  61. Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–78,<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a, b, c
  62. Toyoda, T., Fujii, Y., Yasuda, T., Usui, N., Iwao, T., Kuragano, T., and Kamachi, M.: Improved Analysis of Seasonal-Interannual Fields Using a Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, Theor. Appl. Mech. Jpn., 61, 31–48,, 2013. a
  63. Tucker Walter B., Weatherly John W., Eppler Duane T., Farmer L. Dennis, Bentley Diane L., Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s, 10.1029/2001gl012967
  64. Ungermann Mischa, Tremblay L. Bruno, Martin Torge, Losch Martin, Impact of the ice strength formulation on the performance of a sea ice thickness distribution model in the Arctic : ICE STRENGTH IN AN ITD MODEL, 10.1002/2016jc012128
  65. University of Hamburg: The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project, available at:, last access: 13 February 2019. a
  66. Uotila, P., Goosse, H., Haines, K., Chevallier, M., Barthélemy, A., Bricaud, C., Carton, J., Fučkar, N., Garric, G., Iovino, D., Kauker, F., Korhonen, M., Lien, V. S., Marnela, M., Massonnet, F., Mignac, D., Peterson, K. A., Sadikni, R., Shi, L., Tietsche, S., Toyoda, T., Xie, J., and Zhang, Z.: An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions, Clim. Dynam., 1–38,, 2018. a
  67. Valdivieso M., Haines K., Zuo H., Lea D., Freshwater and heat transports from global ocean synthesis : TRANSPORTS FROM GLOBAL OCEAN SYNTHESIS, 10.1002/2013jc009357
  68. Wadhams, P.: Arctic sea ice morphology and its measurement, Arctic Technology and Policy, edited by: Dyer, I. and Chryssostomidis, C., Hemisphere Publishing Corp., Washington, D.C., 1984. a
  69. Wadhams P., Horne R. J., An Analysis Of Ice Profiles Obtained By Submarine Sonar In The Beaufort Sea, 10.3189/s0022143000015264
  70. Walsh John E., Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.003
  71. Wensnahan Mark, Sea-ice draft from submarine-based sonar: Establishing a consistent record from analog and digitally recorded data, 10.1029/2005gl022507
  72. Xie Jiping, Bertino Laurent, Counillon François, Lisæter Knut A., Sakov Pavel, Quality assessment of the TOPAZ4 reanalysis in the Arctic over the period 1991–2013, 10.5194/os-13-123-2017
  73. Zhang, J. L. and Rothrock, D. A.: Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 845–861, 2003. a
  74. Zhang, J. L. and Rothrock, D. A.: PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis, available at: (last access: 13 February 2019), 2003. a
  75. Zhang S., Harrison M. J., Rosati A., Wittenberg A., System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies, 10.1175/mwr3466.1
  76. Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M. A., and Mogensen, K.: The ECMWF-MyOcean2 eddy-permitting ocean and sea-ice reanalysis ORAP5. Part 1: implementation, ECMWF technical memorandum 736,, 2015. a
  77. Zwally H. Jay, Yi Donghui, Kwok Ron, Zhao Yunhe, ICESat measurements of sea ice freeboard and estimates of sea ice thickness in the Weddell Sea, 10.1029/2007jc004284
Bibliographic reference Ponsoni, Leandro ; Massonnet, François ; Fichefet, Thierry ; Chevallier, Matthieu ; Docquier, David. On the timescales and length scales of the Arctic sea ice thickness anomalies: a study based on 14 reanalyses. In: The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, no.2, p. 521-543 (2019)
Permanent URL