Impact of land-use zoning for forest protection and production on forest cover changes in Bhutan

Bruggeman, Derek [UCL] Meyfroidt, Patrick [UCL] Lambin, Eric [UCL]

Bhutan is characterized by a landscape dominated by forests. A substantial share of these forests is dedicated to nature conservation, with an extensive protected area network connected by biological corridors. Forestlands are also partly allocated to timber production, including forest management units subjected to strict regulations. We assessed the effectiveness of these various land-use zoning units to protect forest cover. We used a matching procedure to control for covariates and obtain robust estimates of the impact of each type of unit on forest cover changes during the 2000s. We also investigated subsets of the protected area network to test for effectiveness heterogeneities within this network. Our results showed that protected areas prevented 63% of the forest loss expected in forestlands under this protection status. These units also curtailed forest gain. Long-established protected areas were more effective at avoiding forest loss than recent ones, while the levels of stringency and operationality of protected areas had no differentiable impact on forest loss. We detected more forest loss in forests surrounding protected areas compared to more distant forestlands, showing a leakage effect. Biological corridors had no impact on forest loss and gain. Forest management units decreased forest loss by half. After accounting for the selection bias, this study demonstrated the effectiveness of land use zoning for forest conservation in Bhutan.