Climate driven trends in tree biomass increment show asynchronous dependence on tree-ring width and wood density variation

Tree growth is a key ecosystem function supporting climate change mitigation strategies. However climate change may induce feedbacks on radial growth and wood density, affecting the carbon sequestration capacity of forests. Using a mixed modeling technique long-term trends in radial growth, wood density and above-ground biomass, defined as the product of the annual basal area growth with the wood density, of common beech (Fagus sylvatica) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) in the Belgian Ardennes, were determined and explained using climate drivers of change. This modeling strategy allowed us to determine if the same conclusions can be drawn when only BAI is considered, as is assumed in most carbon sequestration studies, when looking at long-term trends in carbon sequestration. The models indicate thatabove-ground biomass increment changes over time are more driven by changes in radial growth than by changes in wood density. Nevertheless, the assumption of constant wood density in most carbon sequestration studies is incorrect. Ignoring wood density results in an underestimation of long-term trends in above-ground biomass increment for beech, and an overestimation of above-ground biomass increment for oak. Interesting is that radial growth is mostly driven by climate variables of the current year, whereas wood density is more driven by the climate variables of the previous year. Beech radial growth and wood density is found to be negatively influenced by drought and positively by water availability. Oak radial growth and wood density is negatively affected by late frost and positively by water availability. The findings of this study suggest that radial growth in combination with wood density should be used in carbon sequestration studies as different climate driven long-term trends in radial growth and wood density are found.