User menu

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

Bibliographic reference Seftigen, Kristina ; Goosse, Hugues ; Klein, François ; Chen, Deliang. Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 13, p. 1831-1850 (2017)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/192307
  1. Adams, B. J., Mann, M. E., and Ammann, C. M.: Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing, Nature, 426, 274–278, 2003.
  2. Adler Robert F., Gu Guojun, Wang Jian-Jian, Huffman George J., Curtis Scott, Bolvin David, Relationships between global precipitation and surface temperature on interannual and longer timescales (1979–2006), 10.1029/2008jd010536
  3. Allan Rob, Ansell Tara, A New Globally Complete Monthly Historical Gridded Mean Sea Level Pressure Dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004, 10.1175/jcli3937.1
  4. Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002.
  5. Anchukaitis K. J., Buckley B. M., Cook E. R., Cook B. I., D'Arrigo R. D., Ammann C. M., Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region : VOLCANOES AND THE ASIAN MONSOON, 10.1029/2010gl044843
  6. Ault T. R., Cole J. E., St. George S., The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models : CMIP5 DECADAL PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY, 10.1029/2012gl053424
  7. Ault Toby R., Cole Julia E., Overpeck Jonathan T., Pederson Gregory T., St. George Scott, Otto-Bliesner Bette, Woodhouse Connie A., Deser Clara, The Continuum of Hydroclimate Variability in Western North America during the Last Millennium, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00732.1
  8. Bala G., Duffy P. B., Taylor K. E., Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle, 10.1073/pnas.0711648105
  9. Berg Alexis, Lintner Benjamin R., Findell Kirsten, Seneviratne Sonia I., van den Hurk Bart, Ducharne Agnès, Chéruy Frédérique, Hagemann Stefan, Lawrence David M., Malyshev Sergey, Meier Arndt, Gentine Pierre, Interannual Coupling between Summertime Surface Temperature and Precipitation over Land: Processes and Implications for Climate Change*, 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00324.1
  10. Björklund, J., Gunnarson, B. E., Krusic, P. J., Grudd, H., Josefsson, T., Östlund, L., and Linderholm, H. W.: Advances towards improved low-frequency tree-ring reconstructions, using an updated Pinus sylvestris L. MXD network from the Scandinavian Mountains, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 113, 697, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0787-7, 2012.
  11. Björklund J. A., Gunnarson B. E., Seftigen K., Esper J., Linderholm H. W., Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information, 10.5194/cp-10-877-2014
  12. Briffa Keith R., Melvin Thomas M., A Closer Look at Regional Curve Standardization of Tree-Ring Records: Justification of the Need, a Warning of Some Pitfalls, and Suggested Improvements in Its Application, Dendroclimatology (2011) ISBN:9781402040108 p.113-145, 10.1007/978-1-4020-5725-0_5
  13. Briffa K R, Jones P D, Bartholin T S, Eckstein D, Schweingruber F H, Karlén W, Zetterberg P, Eronen M, Fennoscandian summers from ad 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales, 10.1007/bf00211153
  14. Iles Carley E, Hegerl Gabriele C, The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models, 10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104012
  15. Coats Sloan, Cook Benjamin I., Smerdon Jason E., Seager Richard, North American Pancontinental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium*, 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00634.1
  16. Cook, E. R. and Krusic, P. J.: Arstan, version 2005, Tree-ring laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs., Palisades, NY, available at: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/trl (last access: 17 March 2014), 2005.
  17. Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., Meko, D., Graybill, D. A., and Funkhouser, G.: The `segment length curse' in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies, Holocene, 5, 229–237, 1995.
  18. Cook, E. R., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., and Cleaveland, M. K.: Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States, J. Climate, 12, 1145–1162, 1999.
  19. Cook E. R., Seager R., Kushnir Y., Briffa K. R., Bu ntgen U., Frank D., Krusic P. J., Tegel W., van der Schrier G., Andreu-Hayles L., Baillie M., Baittinger C., Bleicher N., Bonde N., Brown D., Carrer M., Cooper R., Cufar K., Dittmar C., Esper J., Griggs C., Gunnarson B., Gu nther B., Gutierrez E., Haneca K., Helama S., Herzig F., Heussner K.-U., Hofmann J., Janda P., Kontic R., Ko se N., Kyncl T., Levanic T., Linderholm H., Manning S., Melvin T. M., Miles D., Neuwirth B., Nicolussi K., Nola P., Panayotov M., Popa I., Rothe A., Seftigen K., Seim A., Svarva H., Svoboda M., Thun T., Timonen M., Touchan R., Trotsiuk V., Trouet V., Walder F., Wazny T., Wilson R., Zang C., Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, 10.1126/sciadv.1500561
  20. Crowley T. J., Unterman M. B., Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, 10.5194/essd-5-187-2013
  21. D'Arrigo Rosanne, Wilson Rob, Anchukaitis Kevin J., Volcanic cooling signal in tree ring temperature records for the past millennium : VOLCANISM AND TREE RING RECORDS, 10.1002/jgrd.50692
  22. Drobyshev Igor, Niklasson Mats, Linderholm Hans W., Seftigen Kristina, Hickler Thomas, Eggertsson Olafur, Reconstruction of a regional drought index in southern Sweden since AD 1750, 10.1177/0959683610391312
  23. Dufresne J.-L., Foujols M.-A., Denvil S., Caubel A., Marti O., Aumont O., Balkanski Y., Bekki S., Bellenger H., Benshila R., Bony S., Bopp L., Braconnot P., Brockmann P., Cadule P., Cheruy F., Codron F., Cozic A., Cugnet D., de Noblet N., Duvel J.-P., Ethé C., Fairhead L., Fichefet T., Flavoni S., Friedlingstein P., Grandpeix J.-Y., Guez L., Guilyardi E., Hauglustaine D., Hourdin F., Idelkadi A., Ghattas J., Joussaume S., Kageyama M., Krinner G., Labetoulle S., Lahellec A., Lefebvre M.-P., Lefevre F., Levy C., Li Z. X., Lloyd J., Lott F., Madec G., Mancip M., Marchand M., Masson S., Meurdesoif Y., Mignot J., Musat I., Parouty S., Polcher J., Rio C., Schulz M., Swingedouw D., Szopa S., Talandier C., Terray P., Viovy N., Vuichard N., Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, 10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
  24. Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Timonen, M., Zorita, E., Wilson, R. J. S., Luterbacher, J., Holzkamper, S., Fischer, N., Wagner, S., Nievergelt, D., Verstege, A., and Buntgen, U.: Orbital forcing of tree-ring data, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 862–866, 2012.
  25. Esper Jan, Schneider Lea, Smerdon Jason E., Schöne Bernd R., Büntgen Ulf, Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data, 10.1016/j.dendro.2015.07.001
  26. Feng Song, Hu Qi, Oglesby Robert J., Influence of Atlantic sea surface temperatures on persistent drought in North America, 10.1007/s00382-010-0835-x
  27. Fischer E. M., Luterbacher J., Zorita E., Tett S. F. B., Casty C., Wanner H., European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium : CLIMATE RESPONSE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS, 10.1029/2006gl027992
  28. Frank, D. C., Esper, J., and Cook, E. R.: On variance adjustments in tree-ring chronology development, TRACE, 4, 56–66, 2006.
  29. Franke, J., Frank, D., Raible, C. C., Esper, J., and Bronnimann, S.: Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, 2013.
  30. Gao Chaochao, Robock Alan, Ammann Caspar, Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, 10.1029/2008jd010239
  31. Gentine Pierre, Holtslag Albert A. M., D'Andrea Fabio, Ek Michael, Surface and Atmospheric Controls on the Onset of Moist Convection over Land, 10.1175/jhm-d-12-0137.1
  32. Gleckler P. J., Wigley T. M. L., Santer B. D., Gregory J. M., AchutaRao K., Taylor K. E., Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean : Volcanoes and climate, 10.1038/439675a
  33. Grinsted A., Moore J. C., Jevrejeva S., Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series, 10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
  34. Gunnarson Björn E., Linderholm Hans W., Moberg Anders, Improving a tree-ring reconstruction from west-central Scandinavia: 900 years of warm-season temperatures, 10.1007/s00382-010-0783-5
  35. Haarsma Reindert J., Selten Frank, Hurk Bart vd, Hazeleger Wilco, Wang Xueli, Drier Mediterranean soils due to greenhouse warming bring easterly winds over summertime central Europe, 10.1029/2008gl036617
  36. Harris I., Jones P.D., Osborn T.J., Lister D.H., Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset : UPDATED HIGH-RESOLUTION GRIDS OF MONTHLY CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS, 10.1002/joc.3711
  37. Haurwitz, M. W. and Brier, G. W.: A Critique of the Superposed Epoch Analysis Method: Its Application to Solar–Weather Relations, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 2074–2079, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<2074:acotse>2.0.co;2, 1981.
  38. Hegerl Gabriele C., Black Emily, Allan Richard P., Ingram William J., Polson Debbie, Trenberth Kevin E., Chadwick Robin S., Arkin Phillip A., Sarojini Beena Balan, Becker Andreas, Dai Aiguo, Durack Paul J., Easterling David, Fowler Hayley J., Kendon Elizabeth J., Huffman George J., Liu Chunlei, Marsh Robert, New Mark, Osborn Timothy J., Skliris Nikolaos, Stott Peter A., Vidale Pier-Luigi, Wijffels Susan E., Wilcox Laura J., Willett Kate M., Zhang Xuebin, Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle, 10.1175/bams-d-13-00212.1
  39. Helama, S. and Lindholm, M.: Droughts and rainfall in south eastern Finland since AD 874, inferred from Scots pine tree-rings, Boreal Environ. Res., 8, 171–183, 2003.
  40. Helama Samuli, Meriläinen Jouko, Tuomenvirta Heikki, Multicentennial megadrought in northern Europe coincided with a global El Niño–Southern Oscillation drought pattern during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, 10.1130/g25329a.1
  41. Held Isaac M., Soden Brian J., Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, 10.1175/jcli3990.1
  42. Iles Carley E., Hegerl Gabriele C., Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions, 10.1038/ngeo2545
  43. Iles Carley E., Hegerl Gabriele C., Schurer Andrew P., Zhang Xuebin, The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation : VOLCANOES AND PRECIPITATION, 10.1002/jgrd.50678
  44. Jones P. D., Lister D. H., The influence of the circulation on surface temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe, 10.5194/cp-5-259-2009
  45. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Briffa, K. R.: Estimating Sampling Errors in Large-Scale Temperature Averages, J. Climate, 10, 2548–2568, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2548:eseils>2.0.co;2, 1997.
  46. Jones P. D, Melvin T. M., Harpham C., Grudd H., Helama S., Cool North European summers and possible links to explosive volcanic eruptions : NORTH EUROPEAN SUMMERS AND VOLCANOES, 10.1002/jgrd.50513
  47. Jönsson Karin, Nilsson Christer, Scots Pine (pinus sylvestrisL.) on Shingle Fields: A Dendrochronologic Reconstruction of Early Summer Precipitation in Mideast Sweden, 10.1175/2009jcli2401.1
  48. Jungclaus J. H., Lohmann K., Zanchettin D., Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium, 10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014
  49. Kavvada Argyro, Ruiz-Barradas Alfredo, Nigam Sumant, AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations, 10.1007/s00382-013-1712-1
  50. Landrum Laura, Otto-Bliesner Bette L., Wahl Eugene R., Conley Andrew, Lawrence Peter J., Rosenbloom Nan, Teng Haiyan, Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00326.1
  51. Lehner F., Joos F., Raible C. C., Mignot J., Born A., Keller K. M., Stocker T. F., Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE, 10.5194/esd-6-411-2015
  52. Linderholm, H. W. and Molin, T.: Early nineteenth century drought in east central Sweden inferred from dendrochronological and historical archives, Clim. Res., 29, 63–72, 2005.
  53. Linderholm Hans W., Niklasson Mats, Molin Tina, Summer moisture variability in east central sweden since the mid‐eighteenth century recorded in tree rings, 10.1111/j.0435-3676.2004.00231.x
  54. Linderholm H. W., Björklund J. A., Seftigen K., Gunnarson B. E., Grudd H., Jeong J.-H., Drobyshev I., Liu Y., Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potential, 10.5194/cp-6-93-2010
  55. Linderholm Hans W., Björklund Jesper, Seftigen Kristina, Gunnarson Björn E., Fuentes Mauricio, Fennoscandia revisited: a spatially improved tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperatures for the last 900 years, 10.1007/s00382-014-2328-9
  56. Madden, R. A. and Williams, J.: The Correlation between Temperature and Precipitation in the United States and Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 106, 142–147, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0142:tcbtap>2.0.co;2, 1978.
  57. McCarroll Danny, Loader Neil J, Jalkanen Risto, Gagen Mary H, Grudd Håkan, Gunnarson Björn E, Kirchhefer Andreas J, Friedrich Michael, Linderholm Hans W, Lindholm Markus, Boettger Tatjana, Los Sietse O, Remmele Sabine, Kononov Yuri M, Yamazaki Yasuhiro H, Young Giles HF, Zorita Eduardo, A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe, 10.1177/0959683612467483
  58. Melvin Thomas M., Briffa Keith R., A “signal-free” approach to dendroclimatic standardisation, 10.1016/j.dendro.2007.12.001
  59. National Research Council: Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 1–160, 2006.
  60. Oglesby Robert, Feng Song, Hu Qi, Rowe Clinton, The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on medieval drought in North America: Synthesizing results from proxy data and climate models, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.07.005
  61. Osborn T. J., Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: the roles of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing, 10.1007/s00382-004-0405-1
  62. Otto-Bliesner Bette L., Brady Esther C., Fasullo John, Jahn Alexandra, Landrum Laura, Stevenson Samantha, Rosenbloom Nan, Mai Andrew, Strand Gary, Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model, 10.1175/bams-d-14-00233.1
  63. Sarojini Beena Balan, Stott Peter A., Black Emily, Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation, 10.1038/nclimate2976
  64. Schmidt G. A., Jungclaus J. H., Ammann C. M., Bard E., Braconnot P., Crowley T. J., Delaygue G., Joos F., Krivova N. A., Muscheler R., Otto-Bliesner B. L., Pongratz J., Shindell D. T., Solanki S. K., Steinhilber F., Vieira L. E. A., Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), 10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011
  65. Seftigen Kristina, Linderholm Hans W., Drobyshev Igor, Niklasson Mats, Reconstructed drought variability in southeastern Sweden since the 1650s : RECONSTRUCTED DROUGHT VARIABILITY IN SOUTHEASTERN SWEDEN, 10.1002/joc.3592
  66. Seftigen Kristina, Björklund Jesper, Cook Edward R., Linderholm Hans W., A tree-ring field reconstruction of Fennoscandian summer hydroclimate variability for the last millennium, 10.1007/s00382-014-2191-8
  67. 10.1175/jcli-d-13-00734.s1
  68. Seneviratne Sonia I., Corti Thierry, Davin Edouard L., Hirschi Martin, Jaeger Eric B., Lehner Irene, Orlowsky Boris, Teuling Adriaan J., Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004
  69. Shindell Drew T., Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, 10.1029/2003jd004151
  70. Sigl, M., Winstrup, M., McConnell, J. R., Welten, K. C., Plunkett, G., Ludlow, F., Buntgen, U., Caffee, M., Chellman, N., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Kipfstuhl, S., Kostick, C., Maselli, O. J., Mekhaldi, F., Mulvaney, R., Muscheler, R., Pasteris, D. R., Pilcher, J. R., Salzer, M., Schupbach, S., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., and Woodruff, T. E.: Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature, 523, 543–549, 2015.
  71. Taylor Karl E., Stouffer Ronald J., Meehl Gerald A., An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, 10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1
  72. Thiéblemont Rémi, Matthes Katja, Omrani Nour-Eddine, Kodera Kunihiko, Hansen Felicitas, Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability, 10.1038/ncomms9268
  73. Thomson D.J., Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis, 10.1109/proc.1982.12433
  74. Thornthwaite C. W., An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate, 10.2307/210739
  75. Tolwinski-Ward Susan E., Evans Michael N., Hughes Malcolm K., Anchukaitis Kevin J., An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width, 10.1007/s00382-010-0945-5
  76. Trenberth KE, Changes in precipitation with climate change, 10.3354/cr00953
  77. van Oldenborgh Geert Jan, Van Ulden AAD, On the relationship between global warming, local warming in the Netherlands and changes in circulation in the 20th century, 10.1002/joc.966
  78. Vicente-Serrano Sergio M., Beguería Santiago, López-Moreno Juan I., A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, 10.1175/2009jcli2909.1
  79. Vicente-Serrano S. M., Gouveia C., Camarero J. J., Begueria S., Trigo R., Lopez-Moreno J. I., Azorin-Molina C., Pasho E., Lorenzo-Lacruz J., Revuelto J., Moran-Tejeda E., Sanchez-Lorenzo A., Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes, 10.1073/pnas.1207068110
  80. Watanabe S., Hajima T., Sudo K., Nagashima T., Takemura T., Okajima H., Nozawa T., Kawase H., Abe M., Yokohata T., Ise T., Sato H., Kato E., Takata K., Emori S., Kawamiya M., MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, 10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011
  81. Wigley, T. M. L., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: On the Average Value of Correlated Time Series, with Applications in Dendroclimatology and Hydrometeorology, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0201:otavoc>2.0.co;2, 1984.
  82. Wilson Rob, Miles Dan, Loader Neil J., Melvin Tom, Cunningham Laura, Cooper Richard, Briffa Keith, A millennial long March–July precipitation reconstruction for southern-central England, 10.1007/s00382-012-1318-z
  83. Wilson Rob, Anchukaitis Kevin, Briffa Keith R., Büntgen Ulf, Cook Edward, D'Arrigo Rosanne, Davi Nicole, Esper Jan, Frank Dave, Gunnarson Björn, Hegerl Gabi, Helama Samuli, Klesse Stefan, Krusic Paul J., Linderholm Hans W., Myglan Vladimir, Osborn Timothy J., Rydval Miloš, Schneider Lea, Schurer Andrew, Wiles Greg, Zhang Peng, Zorita Eduardo, Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.12.005
  84. Wu, P., Christidis, N., and Stott, P.: Anthropogenic impact on Earth's hydrological cycle, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 807–810, 2013.
  85. Wu Tongwen, Song Lianchun, Li Weiping, Wang Zaizhi, Zhang Hua, Xin Xiaoge, Zhang Yanwu, Zhang Li, Li Jianglong, Wu Fanghua, Liu Yiming, Zhang Fang, Shi Xueli, Chu Min, Zhang Jie, Fang Yongjie, Wang Fang, Lu Yixiong, Liu Xiangwen, Wei Min, Liu Qianxia, Zhou Wenyan, Dong Min, Zhao Qigeng, Ji Jinjun, Li Laurent, Zhou Mingyu, An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies, 10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7
  86. Zhang Huan, Yuan Naiming, Esper Jan, Werner Johannes P, Xoplaki Elena, Büntgen Ulf, Treydte Kerstin, Luterbacher Jürg, Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies, 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084020
  87. Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., Lambert, F. H., Gillett, N. P., Solomon, S., Stott, P. A., and Nozawa, T.: Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends, Nature, 448, 461–465, 2007.