User menu

Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction

Bibliographic reference Turney, Chris S. M. ; Fogwill, Christopher J. ; Palmer, Jonathan G. ; van Sebille, Erik ; Thomas, Zoë ; et. al. Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperature reconstruction. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 13, no.3, p. 231-248 (2017)
Permanent URL
  1. Abram Nerilie J., Mulvaney Robert, Vimeux Françoise, Phipps Steven J., Turner John, England Matthew H., Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium, 10.1038/nclimate2235
  2. Adamson, D. A., Whetton, P., and Selkirk, P. M.: An analysis of air temperature records for Macquarie Island: decadal warming, ENSO cooling and Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns, Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, 122, 107–112, 1988.
  3. Baker CS, Chilvers BL, Constantine R, DuFresne S, Mattlin RH, van Helden A, Hitchmough R, Conservation status of New Zealand marine mammals (suborders Cetacea and Pinnipedia), 2009, 10.1080/00288330.2010.482970
  4. Biondi Franco, Waikul Kishor, DENDROCLIM2002: A C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies, 10.1016/j.cageo.2003.11.004
  5. Boersma P. Dee, Rebstock Ginger A., Climate Change Increases Reproductive Failure in Magellanic Penguins, 10.1371/journal.pone.0085602
  6. Boyd Philip W., Lennartz Sinikka T., Glover David M., Doney Scott C., Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors, 10.1038/nclimate2441
  7. Brohan P., Kennedy J. J., Harris I., Tett S. F. B., Jones P. D., Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, 10.1029/2005jd006548
  8. Brovkin, V., Bendtsen, J., Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C., Petoukhov, V., and Andreev, A.: Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate dynamics in the Holocene: Experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 86-81–86-20,, 2002.
  9. Chelton, D. B. and Risien, C. M.: Zonal and meridional discontinuities and other issues with the HadISST1.1 dataset, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 18 pp., 2016.
  10. Childerhouse, S., Michael, S., Adams, L., Burns, T., Cockburn, S., Hamer, D., Maloney, A., and Pugsley, C.: New Zealand sea lion research at the Auckland Islands 2014/15, Blue Planet Marine, 50 pp., 2015.
  11. Ciasto Laura M., Thompson David W. J., Observations of Large-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction in the Southern Hemisphere, 10.1175/2007jcli1809.1
  12. Cobb K. M., Westphal N., Sayani H. R., Watson J. T., Di Lorenzo E., Cheng H., Edwards R. L., Charles C. D., Highly Variable El Nino-Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene, 10.1126/science.1228246
  13. Constable Andrew J., Melbourne-Thomas Jessica, Corney Stuart P., Arrigo Kevin R., Barbraud Christophe, Barnes David K. A., Bindoff Nathaniel L., Boyd Philip W., Brandt Angelika, Costa Daniel P., Davidson Andrew T., Ducklow Hugh W., Emmerson Louise, Fukuchi Mitsuo, Gutt Julian, Hindell Mark A., Hofmann Eileen E., Hosie Graham W., Iida Takahiro, Jacob Sarah, Johnston Nadine M., Kawaguchi So, Kokubun Nobuo, Koubbi Philippe, Lea Mary-Anne, Makhado Azwianewi, Massom Rob A., Meiners Klaus, Meredith Michael P., Murphy Eugene J., Nicol Stephen, Reid Keith, Richerson Kate, Riddle Martin J., Rintoul Stephen R., Smith Walker O., Southwell Colin, Stark Jonathon S., Sumner Michael, Swadling Kerrie M., Takahashi Kunio T., Trathan Phil N., Welsford Dirk C., Weimerskirch Henri, Westwood Karen J., Wienecke Barbara C., Wolf-Gladrow Dieter, Wright Simon W., Xavier Jose C., Ziegler Philippe, Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota, 10.1111/gcb.12623
  14. Methods of Dendrochronology, ISBN:9789048140602, 10.1007/978-94-015-7879-0
  15. Cook Edward R., Peters Kenneth, Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climatic and environmental change, 10.1177/095968369700700314
  16. Cunningham DM, Moors PJ, The Decline of Rockhopper PenguinsEudyptes chrysocomeat Campbell Island, Southern Ocean and the Influence of Rising Sea Temperatures, 10.1071/mu9940027
  17. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597,, 2011.
  18. Ding Qinghua, Steig Eric J., Battisti David S., Wallace John M., Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00523.1
  19. Dubinkina S., Goosse H., An assessment of particle filtering methods and nudging for climate state reconstructions, 10.5194/cp-9-1141-2013
  20. Fogt Ryan L., Jones Julie M., Renwick James, Seasonal Zonal Asymmetries in the Southern Annular Mode and Their Impact on Regional Temperature Anomalies, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00474.1
  21. Freitas Ana C. V., Frederiksen Jorgen S., Whelan Jennifer, O’Kane Terence J., Ambrizzi Tércio, Observed and simulated inter-decadal changes in the structure of Southern Hemisphere large-scale circulation, 10.1007/s00382-015-2519-z
  22. Friedman, J. H.: A Variable Span Smoother, Laboratory for Computational Statistics, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 1984.
  23. Goosse H., Fichefet T., Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: A model study, 10.1029/1999jc900215
  24. Goosse Hugues, Renssen Hans, A simulated reduction in Antarctic sea-ice area since 1750: implications of the long memory of the ocean, 10.1002/joc.1139
  25. Goosse H., Zunz V., Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback, 10.5194/tc-8-453-2014
  26. Goosse Hugues, Renssen Hans, Timmermann Axel, Bradley Raymond S., Mann Michael E., Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, 10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6
  27. Goosse H., Brovkin V., Fichefet T., Haarsma R., Huybrechts P., Jongma J., Mouchet A., Selten F., Barriat P.-Y., Campin J.-M., Deleersnijder E., Driesschaert E., Goelzer H., Janssens I., Loutre M.-F., Morales Maqueda M. A., Opsteegh T., Mathieu P.-P., Munhoven G., Pettersson E. J., Renssen H., Roche D. M., Schaeffer M., Tartinville B., Timmermann A., Weber S. L., Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, 10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010
  28. Harsch Melanie A., McGlone Matt S., Wilmshurst Janet M., Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment, 10.1371/journal.pone.0093241
  29. Hindell M. A., Burton H. R., Past and present status of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island, 10.1111/j.1469-7998.1987.tb03712.x
  30. Hiscock, J. A. and Chilvers, B. L.: Declining eastern rockhopper (Eudyptes filholi) and erect-crested (E. sclateri) penguins on the Antipodes Islands, New Zealand, New Zeal. J. Ecol., 38, 124–131, 2014.
  31. Hobbs William R., Massom Rob, Stammerjohn Sharon, Reid Phillip, Williams Guy, Meier Walter, A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008
  32. Hosking J. Scott, Orr Andrew, Marshall Gareth J., Turner John, Phillips Tony, The Influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Low on the Climate of West Antarctica and Its Representation in Coupled Climate Model Simulations, 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00813.1
  33. Jakob D, Challenges in developing a high-quality surface wind-speed data-set for Australia, 10.22499/2.6004.001
  34. Jenouvrier Stephanie, Barbraud Christophe, Weimerskirch Henri, Effects of climate variability on the temporal population dynamics of southern fulmars, 10.1046/j.1365-2656.2003.00727.x
  35. Jones Julie M., Gille Sarah T., Goosse Hugues, Abram Nerilie J., Canziani Pablo O., Charman Dan J., Clem Kyle R., Crosta Xavier, de Lavergne Casimir, Eisenman Ian, England Matthew H., Fogt Ryan L., Frankcombe Leela M., Marshall Gareth J., Masson-Delmotte Valérie, Morrison Adele K., Orsi Anaïs J., Raphael Marilyn N., Renwick James A., Schneider David P., Simpkins Graham R., Steig Eric J., Stenni Barbara, Swingedouw Didier, Vance Tessa R., Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate, 10.1038/nclimate3103
  36. Karoly David J., Southern Hemisphere Circulation Features Associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events, 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1239:shcfaw>;2
  37. Kestin Tahl S., Karoly David J., Yano Jun-Ichi, Rayner Nicola A., Time–Frequency Variability of ENSO and Stochastic Simulations, 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2258:tfvoea>;2
  38. Kidson, E.: Meteorology. Discussions of Observations at Adélie Land, Queen Mary Land and Macquarie Island, Thomas Henry Tennant, Sydney, 121 pp., 1946.
  39. Langlais Clothilde E., Rintoul Stephen R., Zika Jan D., Sensitivity of Antarctic Circumpolar Current Transport and Eddy Activity to Wind Patterns in the Southern Ocean*, 10.1175/jpo-d-14-0053.1
  40. Lea MA, Guinet C, Cherel Y, Duhamel G, Dubroca L, Pruvost P, Hindell M, Impacts of climatic anomalies on provisioning strategies of a Southern Ocean predator, 10.3354/meps310077
  41. Loewe, F.: A note on the sea water temperatures at Macquarie Island, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 19, 60–61, 1957.
  42. Loewe, F.: A further note on the sea water temperatures at Macquarie Island, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 16, 118–119, 1968.
  43. Marshall Gareth J., Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from Observations and Reanalyses, 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4134:titsam>;2
  44. Masumoto, Y., Sasaki, H., Kagimoto, T., Komori, N., Ishida, A., Sasai, Y., Miyama, T., Motoi, T., Mitsudera, H., Takahashi, K., Sakuma, H., and Yamagata, T.: A fifty-year eddy-resolving simulation of the world ocean – Preliminary outcomes of OFES (OGCM for the Earth simulator), Journal of the Earth Simulator, 1, 35–56, 2004.
  45. McGlone Matt S., Turney Chris S. M., Wilmshurst Janet M., Renwick James, Pahnke Katharina, Divergent trends in land and ocean temperature in the Southern Ocean over the past 18,000 years, 10.1038/ngeo931
  46. MCMAHON CLIVE R., BESTER MARTHAN N., BURTON HARRY R., HINDELL MARK A., BRADSHAW COREY J. A., Population status, trends and a re-examination of the hypotheses explaining the recent declines of the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina, 10.1111/j.1365-2907.2005.00055.x
  47. Melvin Thomas M., Briffa Keith R., A “signal-free” approach to dendroclimatic standardisation, 10.1016/j.dendro.2007.12.001
  48. Mo Kingtse C., Higgins R. Wayne, The Pacific–South American Modes and Tropical Convection during the Southern Hemisphere Winter, 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1581:tpsama>;2
  49. Moore Peter J., Fletcher David, Amey Jacinda, 10.1071/mu00037
  50. Morrison Kyle W., Battley Phil F., Sagar Paul M., Thompson David R., Population dynamics of Eastern Rockhopper Penguins on Campbell Island in relation to sea surface temperature 1942–2012: current warming hiatus pauses a long-term decline, 10.1007/s00300-014-1575-x
  51. Newman, B. W.: Meteorology. Tabulated and Reduced Records of the Macquarie Island Station, Alfred James Kent, Sydney, 539 pp., 1929.
  52. Olive David J., Prediction intervals for regression models, 10.1016/j.csda.2006.02.006
  53. Opsteegh J.D., Haarsma R.J., Selten F.M., Kattenberg A., ECBILT: a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, 10.3402/tellusa.v50i3.14524
  54. Paris Claire B., Helgers Judith, van Sebille Erik, Srinivasan Ashwanth, Connectivity Modeling System: A probabilistic modeling tool for the multi-scale tracking of biotic and abiotic variability in the ocean, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.12.006
  55. Pritchard H. D., Ligtenberg S. R. M., Fricker H. A., Vaughan D. G., van den Broeke M. R., Padman L., Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, 10.1038/nature10968
  56. Qin Xuerong, van Sebille Erik, Sen Gupta Alexander, Quantification of errors induced by temporal resolution on Lagrangian particles in an eddy-resolving model, 10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.02.002
  57. Rayner N. A., Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, 10.1029/2002jd002670
  58. Ropelewski C. F., Jones P. D., An Extension of the Tahiti–Darwin Southern Oscillation Index, 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<2161:aeotts>;2
  59. Sallée Jean-Baptiste, Matear Richard J., Rintoul Stephen R., Lenton Andrew, Localized subduction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Southern Hemisphere oceans, 10.1038/ngeo1523
  60. Schneider David P., Okumura Yuko, Deser Clara, Observed Antarctic Interannual Climate Variability and Tropical Linkages, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00273.1
  61. Smith Thomas M., Reynolds Richard W., A Global Merged Land–Air–Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880–1997), 10.1175/jcli3362.1
  62. Sokolov Serguei, Rintoul Stephen R., Circumpolar structure and distribution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current fronts: 1. Mean circumpolar paths, 10.1029/2008jc005108
  63. Steig Eric J., Schneider David P., Rutherford Scott D., Mann Michael E., Comiso Josefino C., Shindell Drew T., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, 10.1038/nature07669
  64. Streten, N. A.: The climate of Macquarie Island and its role in atmospheric monitoring, Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society of Tasmania, 122, 91–106, 1988.
  65. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,, 2011.
  66. Taylor, R. H. and Taylor, G. A.: Re-assessment of the status of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in New Zealand, New Zeal. J. Marine and Fresh., 23, 201–213,, 1989.
  67. Thomas Elizabeth R., Marshall Gareth J., McConnell Joseph R., A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850, 10.1029/2007gl032529
  68. Thomas E. R., Hosking J. S., Tuckwell R. R., Warren R. A., Ludlow E. C., Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica : INCREASED SNOWFALL IN WEST ANTARCTICA, 10.1002/2015gl065750
  69. Thompson David W. J., Solomon Susan, Kushner Paul J., England Matthew H., Grise Kevin M., Karoly David J., Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, 10.1038/ngeo1296
  70. Thomson D.J., Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis, 10.1109/proc.1982.12433
  71. Trathan, P. N., Forcada, J., and Murphy, E. J.: Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: Effects of climate change and variability, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 362, 2351–2365,, 2007.
  72. Trenberth Kevin E., Branstator Grant W., Karoly David, Kumar Arun, Lau Ngar-Cheung, Ropelewski Chester, Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, 10.1029/97jc01444
  73. Trenberth Kevin E., Fasullo John T., Branstator Grant, Phillips Adam S., Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming, 10.1038/nclimate2341
  74. Turner John, Hosking J. Scott, Marshall Gareth J., Phillips Tony, Bracegirdle Thomas J., Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low, 10.1007/s00382-015-2708-9
  75. Turner John, Lu Hua, White Ian, King John C., Phillips Tony, Hosking J. Scott, Bracegirdle Thomas J., Marshall Gareth J., Mulvaney Robert, Deb Pranab, Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability, 10.1038/nature18645
  76. Turney C. S. M., Fogwill C. J., Klekociuk A. R., van Ommen T. D., Curran M. A. J., Moy A. D., Palmer J. G., Tropical and mid-latitude forcing of continental Antarctic temperatures, 10.5194/tc-9-2405-2015
  77. Turney Chris S M, Jones Richard T, Lister David, Jones Phil, Williams Alan N, Hogg Alan, Thomas Zoë A, Compo Gilbert P, Yin Xungang, Fogwill Christopher J, Palmer Jonathan, Colwell Steve, Allan Rob, Visbeck Martin, Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064009
  78. Turney Chris S. M., McGlone Matt, Palmer Jonathan, Fogwill Christopher, Hogg Alan, Thomas Zoë A., Lipson Mathew, Wilmshurst Janet M., Fenwick Pavla, Jones Richard T., Hines Ben, Clark Graeme F., Intensification of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds 2000-1000 years ago: evidence from the subantarctic Campbell and Auckland Islands (52-50°S) : HOLOCENE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WESTERLY AIRFLOW, SW PACIFIC, 10.1002/jqs.2828
  79. van den Hoff John, Burton Harry, Raymond Ben, The population trend of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina L.) at Macquarie Island (1952–2004), 10.1007/s00300-007-0288-9
  80. van Sebille Erik, England Matthew H., Zika Jan D., Sloyan Bernadette M., Tasman leakage in a fine-resolution ocean model : TASMAN LEAKAGE, 10.1029/2012gl051004
  81. Visbeck Martin, A Station-Based Southern Annular Mode Index from 1884 to 2005, 10.1175/2008jcli2260.1
  82. Wang Gang, Dommenget Dietmar, The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 simulations, 10.1007/s00382-015-2932-3
  83. Wang Gang, Dommenget Dietmar, Frauen Claudia, An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability, 10.1007/s00382-014-2154-0
  84. Wang, J., Mazloff, M. R., and Gille, S. T.: Pathways of the Agulhas waters poleward of 29° S, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 4234–4250,, 2014.
  85. WEIMERSKIRCH HENRI, INCHAUSTI PABLO, GUINET CHRISTOPHE, BARBRAUD CHRISTOPHE, Trends in bird and seal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean, 10.1017/s0954102003001202
  86. Wilmshurst Janet M., Bestic Kim L., Meurk Colin D., McGlone Matt S., Recent spread of Dracophyllum scrub on subantarctic Campbell Island, New Zealand: climatic or anthropogenic origins? : Scrub spread on a New Zealand subantarctic island, 10.1046/j.0305-0270.2003.01029.x
  87. Wu Lixin, Cai Wenju, Zhang Liping, Nakamura Hisashi, Timmermann Axel, Joyce Terry, McPhaden Michael J., Alexander Michael, Qiu Bo, Visbeck Martin, Chang Ping, Giese Benjamin, Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents, 10.1038/nclimate1353
  88. Zang, C. and Biondi, F.: Dendroclimatic calibration in R: The bootRes package for response and correlation function analysis, Dendrochronologia, 13, 68–74, 2012.
  89. Zunz V., Goosse H., Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, 10.5194/tc-9-541-2015
  90. Zunz V., Goosse H., Massonnet F., How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?, 10.5194/tc-7-451-2013