User menu

Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

Bibliographic reference Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study. In: Climate Dynamics, (2016)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/180522
  1. Adams J., Maslin M., Thomas E., Sudden climate transitions during the Quaternary, 10.1191/030913399670425018
  2. Ahn J., Brook E. J., Atmospheric CO2 and Climate on Millennial Time Scales During the Last Glacial Period, 10.1126/science.1160832
  3. Akaike H., A new look at the statistical model identification, 10.1109/tac.1974.1100705
  4. Alley R. B., Anandakrishnan S., Jung P., Stochastic resonance in the North Atlantic, 10.1029/2000pa000518
  5. Andrieu Christophe, Doucet Arnaud, Holenstein Roman, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods : Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods, 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x
  6. Berger A., Loutre M.F., Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years, 10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-q
  7. Bigler M (2004) Hochauflösende spurenstoffmessungen an polaren eisbohrkernen: glazio-chemische und klimatische prozessstudien. Ph.D. thesis, Physics Institute. University of Bern, Switzerland
  8. Bintanja Richard, van de Wal Roderik S.W., Oerlemans Johannes, Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years, 10.1038/nature03975
  9. Birchfield G. Edward, Broecker Wallace S., A salt oscillator in the glacial Atlantic? 2. A “scale analysis” model, 10.1029/pa005i006p00835
  10. Biscaye P. E., Grousset F. E., Revel M., Van der Gaast S., Zielinski G. A., Vaars A., Kukla G., Asian provenance of glacial dust (stage 2) in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Ice Core, Summit, Greenland, 10.1029/97jc01249
  11. Braun H., Ditlevsen P., Chialvo D. R., Solar forced Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their phase relation with solar proxies, 10.1029/2008gl033414
  12. Broecker Wallace S., Peteet Dorothy M., Rind David, Does the ocean–atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?, 10.1038/315021a0
  13. Broecker Wallace S., Bond Gerard, Klas Millie, Bonani Georges, Wolfli Willy, A salt oscillator in the glacial Atlantic? 1. The concept, 10.1029/pa005i004p00469
  14. Byrd Richard H., Nocedal Jorge, Schnabel Robert B., Representations of quasi-Newton matrices and their use in limited memory methods, 10.1007/bf01582063
  15. Capron E., Landais A., Chappellaz J., Schilt A., Buiron D., Dahl-Jensen D., Johnsen S. J., Jouzel J., Lemieux-Dudon B., Loulergue L., Leuenberger M., Masson-Delmotte V., Meyer H., Oerter H., Stenni B., Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period, 10.5194/cp-6-345-2010
  16. Cessi Paola, A Simple Box Model of Stochastically Forced Thermohaline Flow, 10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<1911:asbmos>2.0.co;2
  17. Chopin N., Jacob P. E., Papaspiliopoulos O., SMC2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models : Sequential Analysis of State Space Models, 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2012.01046.x
  18. Clement Amy C., Peterson Larry C., Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, 10.1029/2006rg000204
  19. Colin de Verdière A., A Simple Model of Millennial Oscillations of the Thermohaline Circulation, 10.1175/jpo3056.1
  20. Crucifix M., Rougier J., On the use of simple dynamical systems for climate predictions : A Bayesian prediction of the next glacial inception, 10.1140/epjst/e2009-01087-5
  21. Dansgaard W., Johnsen S. J., Clausen H. B., Dahl-Jensen D., Gundestrup N. S., Hammer C. U., Hvidberg C. S., Steffensen J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir A. E., Jouzel J., Bond G., Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, 10.1038/364218a0
  22. DENTON G, ALLEY R, COMER G, BROECKER W, The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.12.002
  23. Ding Zhongli, Liu Tungsheng, Rutter Nat W., Yu Zhiwei, Guo Zhengtang, Zhu Rixiang, Ice-Volume Forcing of East Asian Winter Monsoon Variations in the Past 800,000 Years, 10.1006/qres.1995.1059
  24. Ditlevsen Peter D., Observation of α-stable noise induced millennial climate changes from an ice-core record, 10.1029/1999gl900252
  25. Ditlevsen Peter D., Ditlevsen Susanne, Andersen Katrine K., The fast climate fluctuations during the stadial and interstadial climate states, 10.3189/172756402781816870
  26. Ditlevsen Peter D., Kristensen Mikkel S., Andersen Katrine K., The Recurrence Time of Dansgaard–Oeschger Events and Limits on the Possible Periodic Component, 10.1175/jcli3437.1
  27. Ditlevsen P. D., Andersen K. K., Svensson A., The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle, 10.5194/cp-3-129-2007
  28. Elliot Mary, Labeyrie Laurent, Duplessy Jean-Claude, Changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger temperature oscillations (60–10ka), 10.1016/s0277-3791(01)00137-8
  29. Fischer Hubertus, Siggaard-Andersen Marie-Louise, Ruth Urs, Röthlisberger Regine, Wolff Eric, Glacial/interglacial changes in mineral dust and sea-salt records in polar ice cores: Sources, transport, and deposition : DUST AND SEA SALT IN POLAR ICE CORES, 10.1029/2005rg000192
  30. FitzHugh Richard, Impulses and Physiological States in Theoretical Models of Nerve Membrane, 10.1016/s0006-3495(61)86902-6
  31. Foster Gavin L., Rohling Eelco J., Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2on geological timescales, 10.1073/pnas.1216073110
  32. Friedrich T., Timmermann A., Menviel L., Elison Timm O., Mouchet A., Roche D. M., The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity, 10.5194/gmd-3-377-2010
  33. Fuhrer Katrin, Wolff Eric W., Johnsen Sigfus J., Timescales for dust variability in the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) ice core in the last 100,000 years, 10.1029/1999jd900929
  34. Ganopolski Andrey, Rahmstorf Stefan, 10.1038/35051500
  35. Ganopolski Andrey, Rahmstorf Stefan, Abrupt Glacial Climate Changes due to Stochastic Resonance, 10.1103/physrevlett.88.038501
  36. Gardiner C (2009) Stochastic methods: a handbook for the natural and social sciences, 4th edn. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
  37. Gildor H., Tziperman E., Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change, 10.1098/rsta.2003.1244
  38. Hargreaves J, Annan J (2002) Assimilation of paleo-data in a simple earth system model. Clim Dyn 19(5–6):371–381
  39. Hays J. D., Imbrie J., Shackleton N. J., Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages, 10.1126/science.194.4270.1121
  40. Jackson Charles S., Marchal Olivier, Liu Yurun, Lu Shaoping, Thompson William G., A box model test of the freshwater forcing hypothesis of abrupt climate change and the physics governing ocean stability : BOX MODEL TEST OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, 10.1029/2010pa001936
  41. Julier S.J., Uhlmann J.K., Unscented Filtering and Nonlinear Estimation, 10.1109/jproc.2003.823141
  42. Kageyama Masa, Paillard Didier, Dansgaard–Oeschger events: an oscillation of the climate-ice-sheet system?, 10.1016/j.crte.2005.04.013
  43. Kass Robert E., Raftery Adrian E., Bayes Factors, 10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572
  44. Keeling C. D., Whorf T. P., The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change, 10.1073/pnas.070047197
  45. Knutti R., Flückiger J., Stocker T. F., Timmermann A., Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation, 10.1038/nature02786
  46. Kwasniok F., Analysis and modelling of glacial climate transitions using simple dynamical systems, 10.1098/rsta.2011.0472
  47. Kwasniok Frank, Lohmann Gerrit, Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: Application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability, 10.1103/physreve.80.066104
  48. Kwasniok F., Lohmann G., A stochastic nonlinear oscillator model for glacial millennial-scale climate transitions derived from ice-core data, 10.5194/npg-19-595-2012
  49. Laskar J., Robutel P., Joutel F., Gastineau M., Correia A. C. M., Levrard B., A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth , 10.1051/0004-6361:20041335
  50. Li Camille, Battisti David S., Schrag Daniel P., Tziperman Eli, Abrupt climate shifts in Greenland due to displacements of the sea ice edge : GREENLAND CLIMATE SHIFTS AND SEA ICE, 10.1029/2005gl023492
  51. Li Y., Su N., Liang L., Ma L., Yan Y., Sun Y., Multiscale monsoon variability during the last two climatic cycles revealed by spectral signals in Chinese loess and speleothem records, 10.5194/cp-11-1067-2015
  52. Lisiecki Lorraine E., Raymo Maureen E., A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records : PLIOCENE-PLEISTOCENE BENTHIC STACK, 10.1029/2004pa001071
  53. Livina V. N., Kwasniok F., Lenton T. M., Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr, 10.5194/cp-6-77-2010
  54. Manabe S., Stouffer R. J., Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0841:tseoac>2.0.co;2
  55. Marshall Shawn J., Clarke Garry K.C., Modeling North American Freshwater Runoff through the Last Glacial Cycle, 10.1006/qres.1999.2079
  56. Martrat B., Abrupt Temperature Changes in the Western Mediterranean over the Past 250,000 Years, 10.1126/science.1101706
  57. Martrat B., Grimalt J. O., Shackleton N. J., de Abreu L., Hutterli M. A., Stocker T. F., Four Climate Cycles of Recurring Deep and Surface Water Destabilizations on the Iberian Margin, 10.1126/science.1139994
  58. Masson-Delmotte V., GRIP Deuterium Excess Reveals Rapid and Orbital-Scale Changes in Greenland Moisture Origin, 10.1126/science.1108575
  59. Mayewski Paul A., Meeker Loren D., Twickler Mark S., Whitlow Sallie, Yang Qinzhao, Lyons W. Berry, Prentice Michael, Major features and forcing of high-latitude northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation using a 110,000-year-long glaciochemical series, 10.1029/96jc03365
  60. McManus J. F., Oppo D. W., Cullen J. L., A 0.5-Million-Year Record of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic, 10.1126/science.283.5404.971
  61. Monahan Adam Hugh, The Probability Distribution of Sea Surface Wind Speeds. Part I: Theory and SeaWinds Observations, 10.1175/jcli3640.1
  62. Nagumo J., Arimoto S., Yoshizawa S., An Active Pulse Transmission Line Simulating Nerve Axon, 10.1109/jrproc.1962.288235
  63. Olsen Steffen Malskaer, Shaffer Gary, Bjerrum Christian J., Ocean oxygen isotope constraints on mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability : MECHANISMS FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY, 10.1029/2004pa001063
  64. Peavoy D., Franzke C., Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data, 10.5194/cp-6-787-2010
  65. Peltier W. Richard, Vettoretti Guido, Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A “kicked” salt oscillator in the Atlantic : Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations, 10.1002/2014gl061413
  66. Petit J. R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N. I., Barnola J.-M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis M., Delaygue G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V. M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V. Y., Lorius C., PÉpin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M., 10.1038/20859
  67. R Development Core Team (2008) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www.R-project.org , ISBN 3-900051-07-0
  68. Raftery Adrian E., Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research, 10.2307/271063
  69. RAFTERY ADRIAN E., Bayes Factors and BIC : Comment on “A Critique of the Bayesian Information Criterion for Model Selection”, 10.1177/0049124199027003005
  70. Rahmstorf Stefan, Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years, 10.1038/nature01090
  71. Rasmussen Sune O., Bigler Matthias, Blockley Simon P., Blunier Thomas, Buchardt Susanne L., Clausen Henrik B., Cvijanovic Ivana, Dahl-Jensen Dorthe, Johnsen Sigfus J., Fischer Hubertus, Gkinis Vasileios, Guillevic Myriam, Hoek Wim Z., Lowe J. John, Pedro Joel B., Popp Trevor, Seierstad Inger K., Steffensen Jørgen Peder, Svensson Anders M., Vallelonga Paul, Vinther Bo M., Walker Mike J.C., Wheatley Joe J., Winstrup Mai, A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.007
  72. Rial J, Saha R (2011) Modeling abrupt climate change as the interaction between sea ice extent and mean ocean temperature under orbital insolation forcing. AGU Geophys Monogr 193:57–74
  73. Rial J, Yang M (2007) Is the frequency of abrupt climate change modulated by the orbital insolation? Geophys Monogr Am Geophys Union 173:167–174
  74. Ruth Urs, Bigler Matthias, Röthlisberger Regine, Siggaard-Andersen Marie-Louise, Kipfstuhl Sepp, Goto-Azuma Kumiko, Hansson Margareta E., Johnsen Sigfus J., Lu Huayu, Steffensen Jørgen P., Ice core evidence for a very tight link between North Atlantic and east Asian glacial climate, 10.1029/2006gl027876
  75. Sakai K., Peltier W. R., Dansgaard–Oeschger Oscillations in a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Climate Model, 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0949:dooiac>2.0.co;2
  76. Sakai Kotaro, Peltier W. Richard, A Dynamical Systems Model of the Dansgaard–Oeschger Oscillation and the Origin of the Bond Cycle, 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2238:adsmot>2.0.co;2
  77. Schulz Michael, On the 1470-year pacing of Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events : 1470-YEAR PACING OF DANSGAARD-OESCHGER WARM EVENTS, 10.1029/2000pa000571
  78. Schulz Michael, The tempo of climate change during Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials and its potential to affect the manifestation of the 1470-year climate cycle, 10.1029/2001gl013277
  79. Schulz Michael, Paul André, Timmermann Axel, Relaxation oscillators in concert: A framework for climate change at millennial timescales during the late Pleistocene : A FRAMEWORK FOR MILLENNIAL-SCALE CLIMATE CHANGE, 10.1029/2002gl016144
  80. Seierstad Inger K., Abbott Peter M., Bigler Matthias, Blunier Thomas, Bourne Anna J., Brook Edward, Buchardt Susanne L., Buizert Christo, Clausen Henrik B., Cook Eliza, Dahl-Jensen Dorthe, Davies Siwan M., Guillevic Myriam, Johnsen Sigfús J., Pedersen Desirée S., Popp Trevor J., Rasmussen Sune O., Severinghaus Jeffrey P., Svensson Anders, Vinther Bo M., Consistently dated records from the Greenland GRIP, GISP2 and NGRIP ice cores for the past 104 ka reveal regional millennial-scale δ18O gradients with possible Heinrich event imprint, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.10.032
  81. Sima Adriana, Paul André, Schulz Michael, The Younger Dryas—an intrinsic feature of late Pleistocene climate change at millennial timescales, 10.1016/j.epsl.2004.03.026
  82. Stommel H. M., Young W. R., The AverageT–SRelation of a Stochastically Forced Box Model, 10.1175/1520-0485(1993)023<0151:taroas>2.0.co;2
  83. Sun Youbin, Clemens Steven C., Morrill Carrie, Lin Xiaopei, Wang Xulong, An Zhisheng, Influence of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the East Asian winter monsoon, 10.1038/ngeo1326
  84. Thomas Z. A., Kwasniok F., Boulton C. A., Cox P. M., Jones R. T., Lenton T. M., Turney C. S. M., Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions, 10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
  85. Timmermann Axel, Lohmann Gerrit, Noise-Induced Transitions in a Simplified Model of the Thermohaline Circulation, 10.1175/1520-0485(2000)030<1891:nitias>2.0.co;2
  86. Trenberth Kevin E., Some Effects of Finite Sample Size and Persistence on Meteorological Statistics. Part I: Autocorrelations, 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<2359:seofss>2.0.co;2
  87. Véez-Belchí P., Alvarez A., Colet P., Tintoré J., Haney R. L., Stochastic resonance in the thermohaline circulation, 10.1029/2000gl012091
  88. Venables WN, Ripley BD (2013) Modern applied statistics with S-PLUS. Springer Science and Business Media, Berlin
  89. Wang Zhaomin, Mysak Lawrence A., Glacial abrupt climate changes and Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in a coupled climate model : GLACIAL CLIMATE CHANGES AND D-O OSCILLATIONS, 10.1029/2005pa001238
  90. Winton Michael, Deep Decoupling Oscillations of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation, Ice in the Climate System (1993) ISBN:9783642850189 p.417-432, 10.1007/978-3-642-85016-5_24
  91. Wolff E.W., Chappellaz J., Blunier T., Rasmussen S.O., Svensson A., Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial: The ice core record, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.10.013
  92. Wunsch Carl, Abrupt climate change: An alternative view, 10.1016/j.yqres.2005.10.006
  93. Zhang Xu, Lohmann Gerrit, Knorr Gregor, Purcell Conor, Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes, 10.1038/nature13592
  94. Carson J, Crucifix M, Preston S, Wilkinson, RD (2015) Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle. arXiv:1511.03467