User menu

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Bibliographic reference Jones, Julie M. ; Gille, Sarah T. ; Goosse, Hugues ; Abram, Nerilie J. ; Canziani, Pablo O. ; et. al. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. In: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, no.10, p. 917-926 (2016)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640
  1. Bindschadler Robert A., Nowicki Sophie, Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Aschwanden Andy, Choi Hyeungu, Fastook Jim, Granzow Glen, Greve Ralf, Gutowski Gail, Herzfeld Ute, Jackson Charles, Johnson Jesse, Khroulev Constantine, Levermann Anders, Lipscomb William H., Martin Maria A., Morlighem Mathieu, Parizek Byron R., Pollard David, Price Stephen F., Ren Diandong, Saito Fuyuki, Sato Tatsuru, Seddik Hakime, Seroussi Helene, Takahashi Kunio, Walker Ryan, Wang Wei Li, Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project), 10.3189/2013jog12j125
  2. Ritz C., Nature, 528, 115 (2015)
  3. Majkut J. D., Carter B. R., Frolicher T. L., Dufour C. O., Rodgers K. B., Sarmiento J. L., An observing system simulation for Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake, 10.1098/rsta.2013.0046
  4. Landschützer Peter, Gruber Nicolas, Haumann F. Alexander, Rödenbeck Christian, Bakker Dorothee C. E., van Heuven Steven, Hoppema Mario, Metzl Nicolas, Sweeney Colm, Takahashi Taro, Tilbrook Bronte, Wanninkhof Rik, The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, 10.1126/science.aab2620
  5. Roemmich Dean, Church John, Gilson John, Monselesan Didier, Sutton Philip, Wijffels Susan, Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006, 10.1038/nclimate2513
  6. Levitus S., Antonov J. I., Boyer T. P., Baranova O. K., Garcia H. E., Locarnini R. A., Mishonov A. V., Reagan J. R., Seidov D., Yarosh E. S., Zweng M. M., World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010 : WORLD OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, 10.1029/2012gl051106
  7. Thompson David W. J., Wallace John M., Annular Modes in the Extratropical Circulation. Part I: Month-to-Month Variability*, 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:amitec>2.0.co;2
  8. Thompson David W. J., Solomon Susan, Kushner Paul J., England Matthew H., Grise Kevin M., Karoly David J., Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, 10.1038/ngeo1296
  9. Ding Qinghua, Steig Eric J., Battisti David S., Küttel Marcel, Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by central tropical Pacific warming, 10.1038/ngeo1129
  10. Taylor Karl E., Stouffer Ronald J., Meehl Gerald A., An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, 10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1
  11. Eisenman I., Meier W. N., Norris J. R., A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated?, 10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014
  12. Cavalieri D. J., Parkinson C. L., Vinnikov K. Y., 30-Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability : ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC DECADAL SEA ICE VARIABILITY, 10.1029/2003gl018031
  13. Meier W. N., Gallaher D., Campbell G. G., New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery, 10.5194/tc-7-699-2013
  14. Gallaher David W., Campbell G. Garrett, Meier Walter N., Anomalous Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice Extents During the 1960s With the Use of Nimbus Data, 10.1109/jstars.2013.2264391
  15. Fan Tingting, Deser Clara, Schneider David P., Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950 : FAN ET AL., 10.1002/2014gl059239
  16. Abram Nerilie J., Mulvaney Robert, Vimeux Françoise, Phipps Steven J., Turner John, England Matthew H., Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium, 10.1038/nclimate2235
  17. Thompson D. W. J., Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change, 10.1126/science.1069270
  18. Marshall Gareth J., Half-century seasonal relationships between the Southern Annular mode and Antarctic temperatures, 10.1002/joc.1407
  19. Sen Gupta Alexander, England Matthew H., Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Ice Response to Variations in the Southern Annular Mode, 10.1175/jcli3843.1
  20. Spence Paul, Griffies Stephen M., England Matthew H., Hogg Andrew McC., Saenko Oleg A., Jourdain Nicolas C., Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds : Antarctic subsurface ocean warming, 10.1002/2014gl060613
  21. Gille Sarah T., Decadal-Scale Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean, 10.1175/2008jcli2131.1
  22. Schmidtko S., Heywood K. J., Thompson A. F., Aoki S., Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, 10.1126/science.1256117
  23. Ferreira David, Marshall John, Bitz Cecilia M., Solomon Susan, Plumb Alan, Antarctic Ocean and Sea Ice Response to Ozone Depletion: A Two-Time-Scale Problem, 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00313.1
  24. Fogt Ryan L., Perlwitz Judith, Monaghan Andrew J., Bromwich David H., Jones Julie M., Marshall Gareth J., Historical SAM Variability. Part II: Twentieth-Century Variability and Trends from Reconstructions, Observations, and the IPCC AR4 Models*, 10.1175/2009jcli2786.1
  25. Gillett N. P., Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change, 10.1126/science.1087440
  26. Steig Eric J., Schneider David P., Rutherford Scott D., Mann Michael E., Comiso Josefino C., Shindell Drew T., Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, 10.1038/nature07669
  27. Ding Qinghua, Steig Eric J., Battisti David S., Wallace John M., Influence of the Tropics on the Southern Annular Mode, 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00523.1
  28. Bromwich David H., Nicolas Julien P., Monaghan Andrew J., Lazzara Matthew A., Keller Linda M., Weidner George A., Wilson Aaron B., Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, 10.1038/ngeo1671
  29. Ding Qinghua, Steig Eric J., Temperature Change on the Antarctic Peninsula Linked to the Tropical Pacific*, 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00729.1
  30. Clem Kyle R., Fogt Ryan L., South Pacific circulation changes and their connection to the tropics and regional Antarctic warming in austral spring, 1979-2012 : S. Pacific Trends and Tropical Influence, 10.1002/2014jd022940
  31. Holland Paul R., Kwok Ron, Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift, 10.1038/ngeo1627
  32. Raphael M. N., Marshall G. J., Turner J., Fogt R. L., Schneider D., Dixon D. A., Hosking J. S., Jones J. M., Hobbs W. R., The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate, 10.1175/bams-d-14-00018.1
  33. Turner John, Phillips Tony, Hosking J. Scott, Marshall Gareth J., Orr Andrew, The Amundsen Sea low : The Amundsen Sea low, 10.1002/joc.3558
  34. Turner John, Hosking J. Scott, Bracegirdle Thomas J., Marshall Gareth J., Phillips Tony, Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice, 10.1098/rsta.2014.0163
  35. Fogt Ryan L., Wovrosh Alex J., The Relative Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures and Radiative Forcing on the Amundsen Sea Low, 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0091.1
  36. Hosking J. Scott, Orr Andrew, Marshall Gareth J., Turner John, Phillips Tony, The Influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Low on the Climate of West Antarctica and Its Representation in Coupled Climate Model Simulations, 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00813.1
  37. Stammerjohn S. E., Martinson D. G., Smith R. C., Yuan X., Rind D., Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability, 10.1029/2007jc004269
  38. Schneider David P., Deser Clara, Okumura Yuko, An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring, 10.1007/s00382-010-0985-x
  39. Rye Craig D., Naveira Garabato Alberto C., Holland Paul R., Meredith Michael P., George Nurser A. J., Hughes Chris W., Coward Andrew C., Webb David J., Rapid sea-level rise along the Antarctic margins in response to increased glacial discharge, 10.1038/ngeo2230
  40. de Lavergne Casimir, Palter Jaime B., Galbraith Eric D., Bernardello Raffaele, Marinov Irina, Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change, 10.1038/nclimate2132
  41. Bintanja R., van Oldenborgh G. J., Drijfhout S. S., Wouters B., Katsman C. A., Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, 10.1038/ngeo1767
  42. Swart N. C., Fyfe J. C., The influence of recent Antarctic ice sheet retreat on simulated sea ice area trends : ANTARCTIC SEA ICE TRENDS, 10.1002/grl.50820
  43. Scambos Ted A., Hulbe Christina, Fahnestock Mark, Bohlander Jennifer, The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula, 10.3189/172756500781833043
  44. Pritchard H. D., Ligtenberg S. R. M., Fricker H. A., Vaughan D. G., van den Broeke M. R., Padman L., Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, 10.1038/nature10968
  45. Jenkins Adrian, Dutrieux Pierre, Jacobs Stanley S., McPhail Stephen D., Perrett James R., Webb Andrew T., White David, Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat, 10.1038/ngeo890
  46. Dutrieux P., De Rydt J., Jenkins A., Holland P. R., Ha H. K., Lee S. H., Steig E. J., Ding Q., Abrahamsen E. P., Schroder M., Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability, 10.1126/science.1244341
  47. Jacobs Stanley S., Jenkins Adrian, Giulivi Claudia F., Dutrieux Pierre, Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, 10.1038/ngeo1188
  48. Steig E.J., Ding Q., Battisti D.S., Jenkins A., Tropical forcing of Circumpolar Deep Water Inflow and outlet glacier thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, 10.3189/2012aog60a110
  49. Kirkman Clark H., Bitz Cecilia M., The Effect of the Sea Ice Freshwater Flux on Southern Ocean Temperatures in CCSM3: Deep-Ocean Warming and Delayed Surface Warming, 10.1175/2010jcli3625.1
  50. Goosse H., Zunz V., Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback, 10.5194/tc-8-453-2014
  51. Abram Nerilie J., Mulvaney Robert, Wolff Eric W., Triest Jack, Kipfstuhl Sepp, Trusel Luke D., Vimeux Françoise, Fleet Louise, Arrowsmith Carol, Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century, 10.1038/ngeo1787
  52. Thomas E. R., Dennis P. F., Bracegirdle T. J., Franzke C., Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, 10.1029/2009gl040104
  53. Thomas Elizabeth R., Bracegirdle Thomas J., Turner John, Wolff Eric W., A 308 year record of climate variability in West Antarctica : WEST ANTARCTIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY, 10.1002/2013gl057782
  54. Thomas Elizabeth R., Marshall Gareth J., McConnell Joseph R., A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850, 10.1029/2007gl032529
  55. Thomas E. R., Hosking J. S., Tuckwell R. R., Warren R. A., Ludlow E. C., Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica : INCREASED SNOWFALL IN WEST ANTARCTICA, 10.1002/2015gl065750
  56. Mulvaney Robert, Abram Nerilie J., Hindmarsh Richard C. A., Arrowsmith Carol, Fleet Louise, Triest Jack, Sime Louise C., Alemany Olivier, Foord Susan, Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history, 10.1038/nature11391
  57. Abram Nerilie J., Wolff Eric W., Curran Mark A.J., A review of sea ice proxy information from polar ice cores, 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.01.011
  58. Abram Nerilie J., Thomas Elizabeth R., McConnell Joseph R., Mulvaney Robert, Bracegirdle Thomas J., Sime Louise C., Aristarain Alberto J., Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline of sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, 10.1029/2010jd014644
  59. Murphy E. J., Clarke A., Abram N. J., Turner J., Variability of sea-ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century, 10.1002/2013jc009511
  60. Orsi A. J., Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09710 (2012)
  61. Steig Eric J., Orsi Anais J., Climate Science: The heat is on in Antarctica, 10.1038/ngeo1717
  62. Steig Eric J., Ding Qinghua, White James W. C., Küttel Marcel, Rupper Summer B., Neumann Thomas A., Neff Peter D., Gallant Ailie J. E., Mayewski Paul A., Taylor Kendrick C., Hoffmann Georg, Dixon Daniel A., Schoenemann Spruce W., Markle Bradley R., Fudge Tyler J., Schneider David P., Schauer Andrew J., Teel Rebecca P., Vaughn Bruce H., Burgener Landon, Williams Jessica, Korotkikh Elena, Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years, 10.1038/ngeo1778
  63. Küttel Marcel, Steig Eric J., Ding Qinghua, Monaghan Andrew J., Battisti David S., Seasonal climate information preserved in West Antarctic ice core water isotopes: relationships to temperature, large-scale circulation, and sea ice, 10.1007/s00382-012-1460-7
  64. Bromwich David H., Nicolas Julien P., Monaghan Andrew J., Lazzara Matthew A., Keller Linda M., Weidner George A., Wilson Aaron B., Corrigendum: Central West Antarctica among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, 10.1038/ngeo2016
  65. Connolley W. M., Variability in annual mean circulation in southern high latitudes, 10.1007/s003820050195
  66. Lachlan-Cope Tom, Connolley William, Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Amundsen-Bellinghausens Sea: Role of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation : TROPICAL HIGH-LATITUDE TELECONNECTIONS, 10.1029/2005jd006386
  67. Schneider D. P., Steig E. J., Ice cores record significant 1940s Antarctic warmth related to tropical climate variability, 10.1073/pnas.0803627105
  68. Schlosser E., Anschütz H., Divine D., Martma T., Sinisalo A., Altnau S., Isaksson E., Recent climate tendencies on an East Antarctic ice shelf inferred from a shallow firn core network : climate tendencies on Fimbul ice shelf, 10.1002/2013jd020818
  69. Altnau S., Schlosser E., Isaksson E., Divine D., Climatic signals from 76 shallow firn cores in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, 10.5194/tc-9-925-2015
  70. Campagne P., Crosta Xavier, Houssais M.N., Swingedouw D., Schmidt S., Martin A., Devred E., Capo S., Marieu V., Closset I., Massé G., Glacial ice and atmospheric forcing on the Mertz Glacier Polynya over the past 250 years, 10.1038/ncomms7642
  71. Curran M. A. J., Ice Core Evidence for Antarctic Sea Ice Decline Since the 1950s, 10.1126/science.1087888
  72. Muto Atsuhiro, Scambos Ted A., Steffen Konrad, Slater Andrew G., Clow Gary D., Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods : TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN EAST ANTARCTICA, 10.1029/2011gl048086
  73. Jones Julie M., Fogt Ryan L., Widmann Martin, Marshall Gareth J., Jones Phil D., Visbeck Martin, Historical SAM Variability. Part I: Century-Length Seasonal Reconstructions*, 10.1175/2009jcli2785.1
  74. Visbeck Martin, A Station-Based Southern Annular Mode Index from 1884 to 2005, 10.1175/2008jcli2260.1
  75. Jones Julie M., Widmann Martin, Instrument- and Tree-Ring-Based Estimates of the Antarctic Oscillation, 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3511:iateot>2.0.co;2
  76. Villalba Ricardo, Lara Antonio, Masiokas Mariano H., Urrutia Rocío, Luckman Brian H., Marshall Gareth J., Mundo Ignacio A., Christie Duncan A., Cook Edward R., Neukom Raphael, Allen Kathryn, Fenwick Pavla, Boninsegna José A., Srur Ana M., Morales Mariano S., Araneo Diego, Palmer Jonathan G., Cuq Emilio, Aravena Juan C., Holz Andrés, LeQuesne Carlos, Unusual Southern Hemisphere tree growth patterns induced by changes in the Southern Annular Mode, 10.1038/ngeo1613
  77. Zunz V., Goosse H., Massonnet F., How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent?, 10.5194/tc-7-451-2013
  78. Shu Q., Song Z., Qiao F., Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models, 10.5194/tc-9-399-2015
  79. Purich Ariaan, Cai Wenju, England Matthew H., Cowan Tim, Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes, 10.1038/ncomms10409
  80. Notz Dirk, How well must climate models agree with observations?, 10.1098/rsta.2014.0164
  81. , Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, 10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015
  82. Hawkins E., Sutton R., Time of emergence of climate signals : TIME OF EMERGENCE OF CLIMATE SIGNALS, 10.1029/2011gl050087
  83. de la Mare William K., Whaling records and changes in Antarctic sea ice: consistency with historical records, 10.1017/s0032247400018040
  84. de la Mare William K., Changes in Antarctic sea-ice extent from direct historical observations and whaling records, 10.1007/s10584-008-9473-2
  85. Cotté Cédric, Guinet Christophe, Historical whaling records reveal major regional retreat of Antarctic sea ice, 10.1016/j.dsr.2006.11.001
  86. Hobbs William Richard, Bindoff Nathaniel L., Raphael Marilyn N., New Perspectives on Observed and Simulated Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Trends Using Optimal Fingerprinting Techniques*, 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00367.1
  87. Rignot E., Jacobs S., Mouginot J., Scheuchl B., Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica, 10.1126/science.1235798
  88. Paolo F. S., Fricker H. A., Padman L., Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, 10.1126/science.aaa0940
  89. Swingedouw D., Fichefet T., Huybrechts P., Goosse H., Driesschaert E., Loutre M.-F., Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate warming, 10.1029/2008gl034410
  90. Hellmer Hartmut H., Kauker Frank, Timmermann Ralph, Determann Jürgen, Rae Jamie, Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current, 10.1038/nature11064
  91. Fogwill C. J., Phipps S. J., Turney C. S. M., Golledge N. R., Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input : ANTARCTIC MELTWATER OCEAN SENSITIVITY, 10.1002/2015ef000306
  92. Kay J. E., Deser C., Phillips A., Mai A., Hannay C., Strand G., Arblaster J. M., Bates S. C., Danabasoglu G., Edwards J., Holland M., Kushner P., Lamarque J.-F., Lawrence D., Lindsay K., Middleton A., Munoz E., Neale R., Oleson K., Polvani L., Vertenstein M., The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, 10.1175/bams-d-13-00255.1
  93. Rayner N. A., Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, 10.1029/2002jd002670
  94. Laloyaux Patrick, Balmaseda Magdalena, Dee Dick, Mogensen Kristian, Janssen Peter, A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis : Coupled Data Assimilation for Climate Reanalysis, 10.1002/qj.2629
  95. Goosse Hugues, Lefebvre Wouter, de Montety Anne, Crespin Elisabeth, Orsi Alejandro H., Consistent past half-century trends in the atmosphere, the sea ice and the ocean at high southern latitudes, 10.1007/s00382-008-0500-9
  96. Gillett Nathan P., Stone Dáithí A., Stott Peter A., Nozawa Toru, Karpechko Alexey Yu., Hegerl Gabriele C., Wehner Michael F., Jones Philip D., Attribution of polar warming to human influence, 10.1038/ngeo338