Pathways to Revolution: When the Unstable Social Equilibrium and the Active International Intervention Against Regime Matter: A Comparative Analysis of 12 Middle East and North African Countries Using QCA.

Based on the interest of explaining the popular developments of the so-called “Arab Spring” experienced in (and not limited to) Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria in late-2010, this paper addresses one core question: Why does revolution arise in some MENA countries while in others not? For this purpose, this paper suggests testing the Goldstone’s revolution theory (2011) on twelve Middle East and North Africa countries. Based on the cases studies developed by Goldstone and complementing with in-depth country research (small n) and using ‘soft’ qualitative data, the study applies a cs/Qualitative Comparative Analysis (Ragin, 1987, 1994, 2000; Amenta and Poulsen 1994; Rihoux and Ragin, 2009; Rihoux et.al. 2013) with the aim of investigating the combination of conditions that lead to the outcome. The results confirm the Goldstone’s theory which was applied on the empirical cases under research, however for the non-observed cases it does not. It seems that the condition mobilization is not a necessary condition for the emergence of revolution beyond observed cases. This statement although contradicts the main theories about revolution deserve to be investigated in-depth. While the study does not end here, it presents a first panorama for future systematic research of the phenomenon.