L'effet de serre et la santé humaine.

Numerous scenarios describing the potential evolution of man's activities during the next few decades enable to predict the components of the future environmental system. On this basis and using the most reliable models, it may be predicted that, unless we alter our developmental policy, the Earth system will be significantly perturbed during the course of the 21st century. In particular, the greenhouse warming will cause profound changes in climatic zones as we know them to-day and, consequently, in regional climates and in the agricultural, economic, social and health infrastructures associated with them. According to the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the Business-as-Usual scenario of emission would lead to a warming of about 3 degrees C above the 1990 level by the end of the next century. Sea level will rise due to the thermal expansion of the warmer oceans and potential melting of glaciers with a "best" estimate of 60 cm for the end of the XXIst century. Much more needs to be known about man-made effects on his surroundings, but action must be taken rapidly and effectively to ensure that instead of destroying the basis for human life on Earth, man's ingenuity is applied to saving and improving it.