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Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings

Onglets principaux

Bertrand, C. van Ypersele de Strihou, Jean-Pascal [UCL]

Numerical experiments have been carried Out with a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model coupled to a diffusive ocean in order to assess the potential impact of four hypothesized mechanisms of decadal to century-scale climate variability, both natural and anthropogenically induced: (1) solar variability: (2) variability in volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere (3) anthropogenic increase Of sulphate aerosols' concentration: (4) anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results suggest that neither the individual responses nor the combined natural or anthropogenic forcings allow one to reproduce all of the recorded major temperature fluctuations since the latter half of the 19th century. They show that these temperature variations are the result of both naturally driven climate fluctuations and the effects of industrialization. By contrast, the dominant cause of decade-to-century-scale variability of the 21st Century is likely to be changes in atmospheric trace-as concentrations. Indeed, when the solar, volcanic, and tropospheric aerosols forcings used in our experiments are extended into the future, they are unable to counter the expected greenhouse warming. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Type de document Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Type d'accès Accès restreint
Année de publication 2002
Langue Anglais
Information sur le périodique "International Journal of Climatology" - Vol. 22, no. 6, p. 623-648 (2002)
Peer reviewed oui
Editeur John Wiley & Sons Ltd (W Sussex)
issn 0899-8418
e-issn 1097-0088
Statut de la publication Publié
Affiliations UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique
Mots-clés transient climate simulations ; natural and anthropogenic climate forcings emission scenarios
Liens
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Référence bibliographique Bertrand, C. ; van Ypersele de Strihou, Jean-Pascal. Transient climate simulation forced by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. In: International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 22, no. 6, p. 623-648 (2002)
Permalien http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/41887