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Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?

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Cockx, Bart [UCL] Dejemeppe, Muriel [UCL]

On the basis of aggregate data for the early 1990s, we analyse the determinants of unemployment duration for laid-off male workers in Wallonia (Belgium). Our results indicate that if ranking in recruitment occurs, the standard mixed proportional hazard specification can be too restrictive, leading to an overstatement of the extent of true negative duration dependence. We conclude that negative duration dependence is largely spurious. We also decompose the time variation of the hazard in (unobserved) compositional and direct cyclical and seasonal effects. We find counter-cyclical variation in the quality of young workers, but none for the prime aged. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Publication date 2005
Language Anglais
Journal information "Journal of Applied Econometrics" - Vol. 20, no. 1, p. 1-23 (2005)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher John Wiley & Sons Ltd (Chichester)
issn 0883-7252
e-issn 1099-1255
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - ESPO/ECON - Département des sciences économiques
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Bibliographic reference Cockx, Bart ; Dejemeppe, Muriel. Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 20, no. 1, p. 1-23 (2005)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/39754