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How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

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Boucekkine, Raouf [UCL] Latzer, Hélène [UCL] Desbordes, Rodolphe [University of Strathclyde]

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan (SSA) countries over the 1980-2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an ambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article)
Access type Accès libre
Publication date 2009
Language Anglais
Journal information "Journal of Economic Growth" - Vol. 14, no. 3, p. 233-264 (Septembre 2009)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Springer (New York)
issn 1381-4338
e-issn 1573-7020
Publication status Publié
Affiliations UCL - ESPO/ECON - Département des sciences économiques
USL-B - Centre de recherche en Economie (CEREC)
UCL - SSH/IRIS-L/CERE - Centre de recherche en économie
Keywords Fertility ; Mortality ; Epidemics ; HIV
Links
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Bibliographic reference Boucekkine, Raouf ; Latzer, Hélène ; Desbordes, Rodolphe. How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?. In: Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 14, no. 3, p. 233-264 (Septembre 2009)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/28499