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Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

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Lambin, Eric [UCL] D’haen, Sarah Ann Lise Mertz, Ole Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard Rasmussen, Kjeld

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès restreint
Publication date 2014
Language Anglais
Journal information "Geografisk Tidsskrift" - Vol. 114, no. 1, p. 76-83 (2014)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Routledge ((United Kingdom) Abingdon)
issn 0016-7223
e-issn 1903-2471
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Keywords Sahel ; scenario ; desertification ; climate change ; 1400
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Bibliographic reference Lambin, Eric ; D’haen, Sarah Ann Lise ; Mertz, Ole ; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard ; Rasmussen, Kjeld. Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel. In: Geografisk Tidsskrift, Vol. 114, no. 1, p. 76-83 (2014)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/152220