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Testing instead of assuming the importance of land use scenarios to model species distributions under climate change

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Martin, Youri [Agro-biotechnologies Luxembourg] Van Dyck, Hans [UCL] Dendoncker, Nicolas [FUNDP] Titeux, Nicolas [UCL]

Species distribution models often assume a changing climate (dynamic climate variables) but unchanged land use (static land use variables) to estimate future species distribution shifts. However, scenarios of projected land use change are available to calculate dynamic land use variables. Surprisingly, the importance of using dynamic instead of static land use variables when projecting potential future species distributions under climate change remains largely unexplored. We tested whether the joint inclusion of land use and climate change scenarios altered the projection of future species distribution compared with the classical approach assuming unchanged land use.

Document type Article de périodique (Journal article) – Article de recherche
Access type Accès restreint
Publication date 2013
Language Anglais
Journal information "Global Ecology and Biogeography : a journal of macroecology" - Vol. 22, p. 1204-1216 (2013)
Peer reviewed yes
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. ((United Kingdom) Oxford)
issn 1466-822X
e-issn 1466-8238
Publication status Publié
Affiliation UCL - SST/ELI/ELIB - Biodiversity
Keywords Bioclimatic envelopes ; butterflies ; ecological niche modelling ; global change scenarios ; land cover change ; Lycaena dispar ; Maxent ; spatial resolution ; species range shift ; 3123
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Bibliographic reference Martin, Youri ; Van Dyck, Hans ; Dendoncker, Nicolas ; Titeux, Nicolas. Testing instead of assuming the importance of land use scenarios to model species distributions under climate change. In: Global Ecology and Biogeography : a journal of macroecology, Vol. 22, p. 1204-1216 (2013)
Permanent URL http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/132325