Threshold size for flowering in different habitats: Effects of size-dependent growth and survival

Wesselingh, Renate A. [UCL] Klinkhamer, Peter G. L. [Section of Ecology, Inst. of Evolution and Ecol. Sciences, Leiden University] de Jong, Tom J. [Section of Ecology, Inst. of Evolution and Ecol. Sciences, Leiden University] Boorman, Laurence A [Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Combridgeshire, UK]

For organisms with indeterminate growth, life history theory predicts that in environments where organisms experience high survival rates or gain fecundity with age or size, natural selection favors delayed maturity. In semelparous perennial plants the onset of reproduction is regulated by a threshold size for flowering. We tested this prediction by comparing sand dune populations of the facultative biennial herb Cynoglossum officinale. We collected data on flowering probability, survival, and growth rate in relation to plant size in two habitat types, open areas and poplar thickets, in Meijendel, The Netherlands, and in Holkham, England. Survival of established rosettes was highest in Holkham and lowest in open areas in Meijendel. Relative growth rates in Holkham were about three times as high as those in Meijendel. These findings agreed with the differences in threshold sizes found among the sites: the Holkham field population harbored higher threshold sizes than the Meijendel sites. We used the field data to compare optimal threshold sizes for flowering predicted by three existing models. All three models gave the same rank order for threshold sizes as found in the field: Meijendel open < Meijendel poplar thicket < Holkham. One model, which maximized population growth rate λ, predicted optimal threshold sizes that agreed very well with threshold sizes found in the field. The predictions of the two other models, both maximizing R0, were consistently lower than the threshold sizes observed in Meijendel, while their predictions for Holkham were too high.