Validation of the cost optimization model, Pathway Energyscope, for scenario analysis

A 25-year-old person today will experience 10.2 times more heatwaves in a world with a rise of 1.5°C compared to no climate change. A real effort is urgently needed. That's why Europe came up with some EU policies in the field of sustainable energy like the European Union’s 2050 long-term decarbonisation strategy. To do so, energy systems can be mathematically simplified by using Energy modeling tools. One can find a great number of different energy models in the literature. Each model has its own features and own objectives. This thesis is comparing Pathway Energyscope typical days (PESTD) and Plexos, two cost-optimization tools. The latter two will be used to optimize the transition of the Belgian energy system from 2015 to 2050. The objective will be twofold: to minimize the costs of transition, including operation and investment costs, while linearly reducing the production of greenhouse gas emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The aim of this study will be to validate the PESTD tool developed in collaboration between the Ecole Polytechnique de Louvain and the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne by comparison with the commercial tool Plexos. After validation, an analysis of different scenarios will be established using PESTD. This will mainly analyze how the Belgian energy system responds to various scenarios. One will be examining the various "levers" that can have a significant impact on our energy mix in the coming years. These might include factors like changes in government policy by reintroducing nuclear power, shifts in consumer behavior, advances in technology resulting in lower energy demand, or being more independent regarding imported resources.