The Impact of Infrastructure on Bilateral Trade in Belt and Road Countries——Empirical Research based on Extended Gravity Model

Research objectives: to analyze the impact of transportation, information, and energy infrastructure and their interactions on intra-regional bilateral trade in countries along the “Belt and Road”. Research methods: principal component analysis and extended gravity model. Study finds: The bilateral trade effects of the three infrastructures are positive, and the magnitude of the international trade effects of different infrastructures is different. The information infrastructure has the greatest impact, followed by the energy infrastructure, and finally the transportation infrastructure. There is a negative moderating effect on bilateral trade between transportation infrastructure and information infrastructure, and between transportation infrastructure and energy infrastructure, and a positive moderating effect between information infrastructure and energy infrastructure on bilateral trade. Innovation: Quantitatively measure the consolidated index of the three types of infrastructure of transportation, information, and energy in the countries along the "Belt and Road” and evaluate the infrastructure level of each country. Research value: It is helpful to grasp the actual status of the international trade effect of the infrastructure of countries along the "Belt and Road", provide theoretical and data support for further promoting the "Belt and Road" infrastructure construction, and provide empirical evidence for a theoretical study of the effects of infrastructure interaction on international trade.