Impact of Border Closing and Proximity of Refugees on Public Opinion in Serbia

The refugee crisis has influenced not only destination but also transit countries during 2015 and 2016. Serbia has been found in a very particular position by experiencing increasing number of refugees seeking to enter the EU from one of its common borders during 2016 when the Western Balkan route was officially closed. Along the passage to become the destination country, the importance of refugee integration becomes crucial for the possible long-term gains of the crisis. This research aims at giving an insight into how the attitudes of refugee-hosting population towards incoming refugees evolve over time. I use data on illegal border crossings published by Frontex together with survey data on public opinion towards refugees to present my findings. As a result, growing number of incoming refugees turns out to significantly decrease positive attitudes towards refugees in the municipalities located near the EU border. I also find consistent results when studying the effect of monthly variations in illegal border crossings on attitudes towards refugees in the municipalities that are exposed to the refugee crisis. Moreover, experiencing encounters with refugees tend to display an increase in positive attitudes which seems consistent with Allport’s (1954) contact hypothesis, however, this effect shows somewhat substantial decrease in magnitude over time.