The analysis of Ukraine's foreign trade with partner countries: the case of the DCFTA between Ukraine and the EU

This thesis investigates the impact of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement between Ukraine and the European Union (EU) on Ukraine’s trade structure. The existent literature shows that the issue of whether the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) necessarily lead to an increase in trade between the participants still remains in the center of the controversial debate. In this thesis an attempt to test if the DCFTA actually has an effect of improving the trade between trade partners is made. The empirical analysis of the research is based on the estimation of gravity model and covers the period of 2009-2018. The gravity model is estimated by using the panel data method and applying such econometric techniques as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) models, the Breusch-Pagan LM and the Hausman tests. The results suggest that the DCFTA between the EU and Ukraine has no significant effect on Ukraine’s trade flows with its partner countries.