Analysis of the European electricity grid scenarios Application to the Belgian renewable energies

Elia analyzed the RE capacity required in each scenario (and on other variables such as other countries production, …) and then agreed on a transmission capacity for each border and for each scenario. Based on these forecasts I wanted to look at the influence of this new REs capacity (based on new transmission line capacity) on exports and on the price. The literature review highlighted the congestion problem due to REs intermittency nature. Therefore, in the Belgian’s case I focused on the situation when RE production was elevated. After having done necessary transformations to ensure relevant results and having analyzed the relations between these variables when REs production was high, I forecasted: • Exports based on a change in REs capacity installed • Prices also based on a change in REs capacity installed Finally, I ran an Arima model with the forecasted prices as dependent variable and exports as independent variable. The purpose was to reveal both, how the price is influenced by an augmentation of exports due to an increase in RE capacity installed and to see differences among scenarios. Results revealed that in 2040, exports will influence prices negatively three times more than nowadays. Quantitatively, it goes from a decrease in price of 0.0039 €/MWh for each additional MWh of electricity exported to a decrease of 0.012 €/MWh by 2040. Looking at the best scenario for Belgium and knowing that its CO2 emitted targets are the same as EUs, the Global Climate Action looks better than the two others. This projection allows having an important part of our electricity produced by renewable energies and to limit the seasonality in the production presents in the Distributed Generation scenario. It is due to a better mix in REs installed.