The impact of population ageing in Japan on productivity and economic growth

In this document, I’d like to study the link between anticipated aging of population in Japan on productivity and economic growth. Aging can occur in multiple ways: because of better hygiene and longer life expectancy, meaning also a higher Healthy Years Indicator, and because of a lowering birthrate, typically in the later stage of a demographic transition. In Japan, the aging effect is quite important due to the high life expectancy and the low fertility rate. The idea is to check if some anticipation could take place, where firms know that, given the Japanese context of very low fertility levels , the active population will decline and labor will thus be scarcer and more expensive, making Japan an interesting laboratory to study the effects of aging and help policy makers in other countries to anticipate the effects an older population. On the more theoretical level, I will review the literature concerning the link between aging and human capital and also the deterrent effects of aging on productivity known in the literature. In the end, I found a moderate but positive impact of lower fertility on GDP per capita growth and TFP.