The Sino-US Relations and the "Taiwan issue": Analysis of the Variations in the Notifications to Congress of US Arms Sales to Taiwan under the G. W. Bush and Obama Administrations through the lens of Neoclassical Realism

The People’s Republic of China kept rising both economically and militarily under the G. W. Bush and B. Obama administrations, from 2001 to 2016. What is more, China modernized its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and continued to build up missiles and military equipment opposite Taiwan during that period. While it recognized the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate Chinese government in 1979, the United States committed in the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) to supply Taiwan “with arms of a defensive character” in order “to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability”. Ever since, the TRA has governed the US arms sales to Taiwan. Consequently, US arms sales should have grown alongside the Chinese build-up of missiles and military equipment opposite Taiwan under the Bush and Obama administrations. Yet, that expectation was not always met under the Bush and Obama administrations. There were variations in the notifications to Congress of approved arms sales to Taipei during their terms.This means that China’s rise, and more particularly the Chinese build-up of missiles and military equipment opposite Taiwan and associated military imbalance favoring the PRC, is not the only factor that has to be taken into account when explaining the U.S. arms sales to Taipei. Others factors also played a role. This Master's Thesis seeks to explain the variations in the notifications to Congress of US arms sales package to Taiwan in the context of a rising China by focusing on US domestics factors.